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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Verified account
@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 31 Oct 2016

      Esoteric hot take: If polling swings are exaggerated by non-response bias, that suggests a significant risk of systemic polling error.

      186 replies 379 retweets 802 likes
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 31 Oct 2016

      Either polls are having trouble capturing a random sample, or voter preferences are quite volatile. Either way, lots of uncertainty.

      9:18 AM - 31 Oct 2016
      • 270 Retweets
      • 458 Likes
      • Daily News robg Angela Sam Popky Dissident Right Grayson Dart Carlos M Enrigue Rosie Contra-contrarian
      203 replies 270 retweets 458 likes
        1. Wendy‏ @WendyBoiseID 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Can you translate to English? Thx

          3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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        1. A deplorable‏ @deplorableson 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          So in others words, Trump by a landslide.

          0 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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        1.  🚗 🚌 🚚 🚲‏ @EricPaulDennis 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Or ppl have stopped paying attention. I am. so over this election. And MSU Spartans football. Now flipping water bottles.

          0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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        1. Christopher Hahn‏Verified account @ChristopherHahn 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          All of them?

          0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. John Corbett‏ @CorComm 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          .@NateSilver538 Our experience in last years Canadian election? Polls still accurate, electorate far more volatile

          3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. ΒνΠ‏ @ajitprop 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @CorComm @NateSilver538

          But did you have polls in the same week showing 1 candidate with a 2 pt lead and the other with a 13 pt lead?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. John Corbett‏ @CorComm 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @ajitprop @NateSilver538

          Each of our three parties was first, second and third at some point in an 8 week campaign

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. 1 more reply
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        2. Early Vote Starts October 22 :: Covfefe‏ @OpenIntro 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          would you guess it's more the former or the latter? seems like preferences can't be THAT volatile.

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. Extortion17  ⚓️‏ @CCCINNC 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Polled Last Week. Human. I asked how is the response? He said I was the 1st response in the past hour! Most just hang up.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. Alexander D'Amour‏ @alexdamour 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          arguably voting behavior is more regular, predictable than poll response behavior. LV models work for former, not latter.

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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        1. Raven‏ @KazeSkyz 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          a random sample of likely voters -- far more difficult than just a random sample of adult population

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Eric‏ @EricRokke214 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          No, lots of certainty. Certainty that your career as a political pundit is over.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Pedro Marques‏ @MetroManTO 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          There probably aren't shy Trump supporters skewing the polls. They didn't hide support in primaries @NateSilver538http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/ …

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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