Esoteric hot take: If polling swings are exaggerated by non-response bias, that suggests a significant risk of systemic polling error.
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Can you translate to English? Thx
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So in others words, Trump by a landslide.
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Or ppl have stopped paying attention. I am. so over this election. And MSU Spartans football. Now flipping water bottles.
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All of them?
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@NateSilver538 Our experience in last years Canadian election? Polls still accurate, electorate far more volatile -
But did you have polls in the same week showing 1 candidate with a 2 pt lead and the other with a 13 pt lead?
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Each of our three parties was first, second and third at some point in an 8 week campaign
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would you guess it's more the former or the latter? seems like preferences can't be THAT volatile.
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Polled Last Week. Human. I asked how is the response? He said I was the 1st response in the past hour! Most just hang up.
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arguably voting behavior is more regular, predictable than poll response behavior. LV models work for former, not latter.
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a random sample of likely voters -- far more difficult than just a random sample of adult population
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No, lots of certainty. Certainty that your career as a political pundit is over.
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There probably aren't shy Trump supporters skewing the polls. They didn't hide support in primaries
@NateSilver538http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/ … - 1 more reply
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