Evan McMullin now included in our Utah forecast: http://53eig.ht/2e3nZPn pic.twitter.com/aauXmkT5BR
For now, the model is a bit skeptical about McMullin's chances of actually winning, but 1 or 2 more good polls would go a long way.
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Idaho poll might be interesting too.
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Monmouth Utah poll coming out today.
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i.e. assuming everything else remained static, will model continue to increase H's win % as we get closer to the finish? 2/2
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the polls only model will converge with the nowcast, if you assume same polls just look at current position of nowcast
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thanks!
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I wish Gary had done a better job of trying to attract NeverTrump conservatives early on.
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He left enough room for Evan, who while he can't win, can at least prevent Gary from having a shot in Utah.
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And I say that as a Mormon who went to BYU around the same time Evan did... :-)
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So...what you're saying is...McMullin has a chance of being President of Utah?
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question: does the model take into account the dwindling amt of time left for Trump to make a comeback? 1/
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whoa, all polls that don't include him dropped to weight 0.00? that seems…aggressive? would love to know more.
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when do we get his cartoon head
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more importantly 538 may have just picked the color of the future post-Trump GOP party
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be wary of these. Monmouth and Y2 polls both refer to McMullin as "Independent" candidate but he's "Unaffilliated" on ballot.
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my very scientific poll of Utah friends Facebook support for him leads me to believe he has a real chance
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