It's weird, because polling has actually been pretty good in the primaries to date. Polls very accurate in MI GOP race tonight, for example.
In the famous New Hampshire upset in '08, Clinton trailed Obama by 8 points. Big upset. But today, Sanders trailed Clinton by *21* and won.
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@NateSilver538 republican voters taking part in democratic primary since they can? -
@brucejones13088@NateSilver538 I don't think so. there were less repubs voting in dems then vise versa -
@DKon@NateSilver538 maybe just some bad polling. Hillary +20 is crazy though -
@brucejones13088@NateSilver538 yeah. Biggest upset in American primary history :) -
@DKon@NateSilver538 I don't have a horse in the race so I could care less. But definitely quite the comeback by Bernie compared to polls
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@NateSilver538 any insights into what the hell is wrong with Michigan polling overall? -
@RenceD@NateSilver538 the Mitchell top weight poll, lumped 18-39 together for 150 data points, 60+ represented 400 data points -
@RenceD@NateSilver538 even a stats 101 intern understands that#methodology is extremely ill advised#538ClintonBias -
@PGH4Bernie@NateSilver538 sure, but what about completely averaged polls that had Clinton up 21.4?http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html … -
@RenceD@NateSilver538#Sanders gets 60% + indie, are the polls u speak of Indie+ or Dem only? Same for cross party#GOP#Foxtownhall effect -
@PGH4Bernie@NateSilver538 the polls might be biased, and 538 might be biased, but the average of all public polling had Bernie down 21. -
@RenceD When /all/ the polls are wrong, it's not bias. There are a /lot/ of other problems, but it's not bias.@PGH4Bernie@NateSilver538 -
@EveningStarNM Agreed. FWIW I was arguing that there was no bias. Just bad polling - definitely lack of cell part of it, turnout modeling?
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@NateSilver538@aeidinger hopefully the kids have had enough of clueless old ppl setting the rules.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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@NateSilver538 You got the Dem voters right, you just forgot to poll for GOP voting for Sanders, and Bernie Bros shenanigans. - End of conversation
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@NateSilver538 Bernie is a last minute realization for many. Wake up! Hillary's not fighting for you.It's all for her!#GoBernie#ILPrimaryThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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@NateSilver538 so you were wrong then and REALLY wrong now. You get paid for this crap?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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@NateSilver538 millennials don't have land lines. You can throw traditional polls away. You gave Sanders 1% chance of winning.#retire -
@weedthegamebro@NateSilver538 What is this land line you speak of???#FeelTheBern -
@Sweetp000433@NateSilver538 Landline = traditional wired phones polsters call (in case your ques was serious)#millenialsdonthavelandlines -
@weedthegamebro@NateSilver538 Not serious, I was this close to getting my mother do away with the landline, then hurricane sandy happened.
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