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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 18 Apr 2021

    Nate Silver Retweeted (((David Shor)))

    The reason I think that some *vaccinated* people are in fact being irrational about COVID risk is stuff like this. It's inconsistent with how I imagine they'd handle other risks of a similar or indeed larger magnitude, e.g. riding in a car.https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1380931665766277120?s=19 …

    Nate Silver added,

    (((David Shor)))Verified account @davidshor
    Replying to @agraybee @NateSilver538
    Back of the envelope with conservative assumptions, your per hour risk of killing somebody driving sober is at least ~33x higher than the per-hour risk of killing somebody from Covid hanging out maskless post-vaccination.
    4:31 PM - 18 Apr 2021
    • 120 Retweets
    • 1,209 Likes
    • Judi Daunell Héctor G. Barnés Michael Allen jeg Dr. President Bubbles Chris Maneesh MuniCarGuy skenny
    201 replies 120 retweets 1,209 likes
      1. jphurrah‏ @jphurrah 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Lol nat stahp

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Blonic Youth‏ @JamiesonJMatt 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        the CDC says keep your damn mask on and stay 6ft apart still. How many times do we have to do this before we start listening to disease experts?

        27 replies 6 retweets 90 likes
      3. Matt Wisnefske, cheese enjoyer‏ @mwisnefske 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @JamiesonJMatt @NateSilver538

        The CDC is an institution that I greatly respect and, clearly, during the rise of the pandemic, had they been taken more seriously, many more people would be alive. But, the CDC also exists, de facto, to be risk averse to disease... moreso than we ever are!

        5 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Serbian Cave Hermit‏ @mzbitca 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        I think part of that though is that there is an opportunity to soon have an even lower risk and if that means being more risk aversive than the same Stat would suggest for something else people are willing to do that

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. David Gibson‏ @ElectricWookie 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @mzbitca @NateSilver538

        Exactly - if people were told that not driving for a month would permanently decrease most of the risk... Many would reduce or stop driving for a month.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. (((Howard Forman)))‏Verified account @thehowie 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        For some, they are just shell-shocked. While they don’t have formal PTSD, their ability to frame is impaired. I am amazed by the number of people double masking in rooms with fully vaccinated individuals. At some point, we have to ease up. Even if we still set examples outdoors.

        38 replies 16 retweets 370 likes
      3. Sponson‏ @sponson 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @thehowie @NateSilver538

        Please explain the harm that is caused by people who don’t conform to your personal level of caution at this point, instead leaning towards more caution than *maybe* is necessary

        6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Tom Coates‏Verified account @tomcoates 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Let’s just be blunt for a second - cases in the US are currently in an *upswing*. They’re going up week on week, month on month. Deaths are down, but *not very much* from 1000 a day to about 750 a day over the last month.

        4 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
      3. Tom Coates‏Verified account @tomcoates 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @tomcoates @NateSilver538

        Plus the vast majority of people who have been vaccinated haven’t actually had the shots long enough ago to be sure they’re protected or safe. And the latest CDC survey is still that 10% of cases still happen, and those people are still contagious.

        1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Scienceflare‏ @scienceflare 18 Apr 2021
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Scienceflare Retweeted Scienceflare

        Why not roll out these criticisms once the general pandemic has quieted down? It's still raging out there which is why I don't understand this hobbyhorse of yourshttps://twitter.com/covidpath/status/1383203970307395584 …

        Scienceflare added,

        Scienceflare @scienceflare
        I think the real skew here is about individual vs population-level dynamics. Like: even if you have a fire resistant suit, the public health community is interested in the fire overall going out. Thus you end up with people talking past each other. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1383146863176646657 …
        3 replies 0 retweets 41 likes
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