Age needs to be a higher priority than pre-existing conditions in vaccine rollout plans. Or a lot of people are going to die, unnecessarily. It really is that sample.
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I am sorry to be a broken record, but it is completely indefensible that ACIP presents data like this showing that age is a FAR bigger risk factor for dying of COVID than pre-existing conditions & yet puts them on the same tier for vaccine prioritization. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-11/COVID-04-Dooling.pdf …pic.twitter.com/nzOwim3hMl
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It's also pretty embarrassing for the public health profession that it's largely outsiders like me and
@zeynep and@mattyglesias who are **actually looking at the scientific evidence** and pointing out these obvious problems and that there aren't more critiques from within.Show this thread
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Valley of Despair, that's my home
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Looks like a binary thinking error. There is age or preexisting conditions and fails to consider additive comobidities and cofactor that his analysis misses. JAMA just published a paper on excess deaths in ages 25-44, 38% of the excess since July due to COVID. One example.
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I'm also disappointed to see you (and
@NateSilver538) referring to the 6.5% from the ACIP model. For a transmission-blocking vaccine, they predict it's 0.5 to 2%. For symptom-blocking they predict 2 to 6.5%. -
All of these estimates fall if the vaccine is less effective in elderly. We know that the influenza vaccine is less effective in the elderly, so it would not be a surprise to see the same.
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Not just Silver being confused though. Here in the UK we're prioritising elderly, then older people with conditions. Under 50s with conditions are bottom of the vaccine list with the other under 50s.
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Health equity. Don’t know what that is but it is has no room on the table. Those at highest risk should get the vaccine first. End paragraph.
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