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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 8 Nov 2020

      Nate Silver Retweeted Eric Levitz

      Yeah, our economics + incumbency prior had the race as a tossup. Growth was solid for Trump's first 3 years, the 3Q recovery has been impressive, and CARES put a lot of money in people's pockets.https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1325494174083330049 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Eric Levitz @EricLevitz
      A lot of punditry (including my own) assumed that 2020 was an exceptionally favorable electoral environment for Democrats. But most Americans are better off financially now than they were 4 years ago, and thanks to CARES, better off than they were last January. And most know it! pic.twitter.com/hp1E1yMe16
      Show this thread
      65 replies 94 retweets 923 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 8 Nov 2020

      Per our reckoning, Trump *underperformed* the fundamentals by 4-5 points based on some combination of his COVID handling and ... everything else.

      9:50 AM - 8 Nov 2020
      • 115 Retweets
      • 1,459 Likes
      • ashley c. dinney 🏴‍☠️ Vlad Chiorean まほ Steven Walk IG Chris Brown qween82 BosLawyer
      51 replies 115 retweets 1,459 likes
        1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 8 Nov 2020

          It's also not as though COVID was something that necessarily doomed Trump. Off-hand, lots of incumbents around the world—in countries that handled it even marginally better than the US—seemed to see their popularity rise. (We're working on more rigorous analysis on this topic.)

          84 replies 63 retweets 1,170 likes
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        2. gondo‏ @Gondo_plus 8 Nov 2020

          Its the kind of mealy mouthed acceptance of blatant racist and fascist policies as somehow normal. Or that calling them what they are is impolitic despite being factual.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Max Little‏ @MaxLittle92 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @mozumder @NateSilver538

          No, the fundamentals assume neither candidate has either. Trump underperforming fundamentals suggests that his actions in power and behavior cost him the election.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. End of conversation
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        2. Matt Greenberg‏ @torbald2895 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @wullah_98 @NateSilver538

          ...no they didn't? do you not understand how math works?

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. ChrisO‏ @ChrisO_wiki 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Turns out that incumbency is a pretty damn powerful advantage! It's not easy to overcome.

          3 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
        3. David Polaski‏ @DavidPolaski 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @ChrisO_wiki @NateSilver538

          Sure it! There's a reason only a handful of incumbents have ever lost. Not impossible, but the advantages you have as the incumbent automatically put you several steps ahead of your opponent.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Brandon‏ @BrandonI4KY 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          The election was a referendum on his mismanagement of COVID and his character. If Trump was simply a decent human being, he probably wins easily.

          3 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        3. Christian Tentoni‏ @CTentoni 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @BrandonI4KY @NateSilver538

          But - he never wins the 2016 GOP nomination if he was a decent human being.

          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        4. Show replies

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