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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 5 Nov 2020

      Nate Silver Retweeted Kevin Collins

      Yeah, I'm all for thinking through hypotheses. I have lots of questions about how well polls are doing in reflecting the views of low-propensity Black and Hispanic voters who may have turned out this year, for example. But some of the takes about how polls did are dumb/premature.https://twitter.com/kwcollins/status/1324377884451098625 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Kevin Collins @kwcollins
      You can't measure the difference between votes and polls until you know the number of the former. That said, it's not too early to start generating hypotheses for testing later, as long as they're viewed as such. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324373961082327042 …
      77 replies 70 retweets 1,205 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 5 Nov 2020

      And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls have called 48/50 states correctly and Biden's won the popular vote by 5.3 points or something, I don't think there's a "polls blew it again!" narrative.

      7:53 AM - 5 Nov 2020
      • 118 Retweets
      • 2,105 Likes
      • (((Coby Potischman))) Rajiv Nunna Lorenzo Pregliasco MoelZ Fiona Strasser Asher Coleman Jon August Shawn D. Terry M
      251 replies 118 retweets 2,105 likes
        1. T Shelby‏ @CS2K07 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Nate you are just making it worse

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Arieh Kovler‏Verified account @ariehkovler 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Aren't you usually among the first to point out that the margin is more important to the accuracy of the polls than the polarity of the result?

          4 replies 0 retweets 81 likes
        3. Kevin Donato‏ @WhatMyWifeYells 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @ariehkovler @NateSilver538

          Isn't part of his point that we don't know the margins yet?

          3 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. GuyWithThoughts‏ @ThinksSeesDoes 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Senate polls?

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Tautly‏ @Tautly9 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @rjma93 @NateSilver538

          They did not lol

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Aaron‏ @roneman90 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Uhhh look at the Senate polls.

          1 reply 0 retweets 27 likes
        3. Elbow Below‏ @ElbowBelow 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @roneman90 @NateSilver538

          Senate races in 2018 had bad polling too. Shouldn't have surprised is. Nate had Dem control at 75%, not 90%

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Jessica Mayfair  💙 Ⓥ‏ @JessicaMayfair 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Thursday* ?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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