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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2020

      Here's what's left to count in AZ. At first glance this would seem quite bad for Trump since it's largely mail ballots *but* mail ballots that arrived late in the process are considerably more R by party registration than the ones that arrived earlier.https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/ …

      287 replies 517 retweets 3,383 likes
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      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2020

      Trump needs to win the remaining AZ votes by something like 20-25% depending on how many ballots there are. By party registration, late-arriving mail votes were something like +19% R, per my (quick) calculations.

      11:06 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 177 Retweets
      • 1,623 Likes
      • MoelZ Andrew Been Eric Noonan Jack Kyriakos Holly Knabb Troy Jensen Chad Lauterbach Danh jelena berkelhammer MD, MS, PhD
      297 replies 177 retweets 1,623 likes
        1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2020

          With that said, there are some reasons to think the late-arriving ballots would be less R than you'd gather from party ID. For one thing, the early arriving mail ballots went more heavily for Biden than party ID would suggest, perhaps reflecting his edge amount independents.

          160 replies 94 retweets 1,953 likes
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        1. Peter Panagos‏ @PeteTheGreek13 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          @atTheTrack7

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Gary Banana‏ @GaryBanana1 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          But isn't 250k of it Maricopa, a Biden stronghold?

          5 replies 0 retweets 30 likes
        3. Connor‏ @connormw 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GaryBanana1 @NateSilver538

          Biden is only up 52/46 in Maricopa. It's not a massive lead.

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. parker‏ @parkersacct 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          weird that AP and Fox still have AZ for Biden. Is there actually a chance Trump gets AZ?

          18 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. michael‏ @woodbergs 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          that’s gonna get a yikes from me

          1 reply 0 retweets 57 likes
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        1. Sean Marier (He/Him/His)‏ @839photo 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          R?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Tangerine Narcissist‏ @NarcTangerine 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Oh shit that's close.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Amish Sports Guy‏ @amishsportsguy 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Well shit Nate thanks for coming in and ruining everything.

          3 replies 0 retweets 80 likes
        3. e^(iπ) + 1 = 0  🇿🇦‏ @PaulRedkoles 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @amishsportsguy @NateSilver538

          he's good at this

          0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        4. End of conversation

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