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More broadly: polls suggest Biden's gains relative to Clinton are mostly about persuasion, i.e. flipping some Obama-Trump voters and Johnson/3rd party voters that she didn't get. They don't tend to suggest a more D electorate than in 2016 by party ID (maybe a bit less, in fact).
Early voting data can maaaayyybee give you some hints at *turnout*, but i) it's by party registration, not party ID ii) there's usually not a great way to tell how much the early vote is cannibalizing the late vote iii) this is a persuasion election not a turnout one
Despite that, surface readings of early/mail voting data would mostly seem to be good for Democrats. Maybe NV is something of an exception, and you could argue about FL. But that makes sense too. NV/FL have been Biden's worst swing states (as compared to 2016) in the polls.
Stop getting in my head! I am going to happily expect disaster on Nov 3 and hope that I am wrong.
“this is a persuasion election not a turnout one“ Nobody seems to have informed Trump of this.
to iii, why not both?
They give you some more compelling hints at turnout as soon as early 2020 votes outnumber 2016 total votes.
Yup. If TX already has amassed 91% of the 2016 vote total six days before election day, I think we're heading towards record turnout in TX and probably will for a number of other states as well.
How do you possibly justify iii) when we are seeing record turnout so far?
It’s both. Even if 9/10 votes Biden gets over Clinton are persuasion that 1/10 will make a difference in your confidence margins entering Tuesday and makes say, Blue Texas possible. How are you a stats guy that ignores something just becuase it isn’t the FIRST factor.
If turnout is where it is in texas surely that means turnout is a factor I mean if early voting is already higher than last elections turnout...
Aren’t we expecting considerably higher turnout this year though? Is there a differentiation I’m not 100% getting between a turnout election and an election with high turnout? (Is it just that the biggest fight is in the center rather than the edges?)
(BTW - sort of convinced that Nate muted me because I responded too much to someone in his replies once, so I’m not sure I’ll get an answer here.)
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