Biden's lead in our polling averages before/after these polls: MN +6.4 -> +7.4 NH: +8.4 -> +6.9 NV: +6.5 -> +5.9 WI: +6.9 -> +6.5https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304754901902340102 …
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So Biden's losing ground in 3 of 4, but the one where he's gaining (MN) is arguably the most important of the four. Why? WI has been polled a ton, so no one poll will influence our model that much. The other 3 haven't been polled much, but MN has more electoral votes than NH+NV.
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Of the four key Midwest/Rust Belt battlegrounds, we're getting a pretty clear hierarchy where WI and PA are more competitive than MI and MN. You wouldn't go so far as to say Biden doesn't need to worry about MI/MN, but they've become less likely tipping points.pic.twitter.com/iAGM4p2JS8
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Pennsylvania
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Biden will win PA by 6-7 points. Yawn.
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Nate really loves his
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Whoever does the snake graphic is my hero.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Sadly this isn’t the reality. I will vote with blue but I fear it’s going to be another disappointment this election year.
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I also fear, but there is no reason to believe that this will be an upset election as in 2016. Pollsters have started to weigh w.r.t. education since 2016.
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All those polls did today is make me wonder why nobody seems to be polling Iowa or Ohio.
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Rasmussen just did an Ohio poll that showed Biden up 4. Oddly it seems to be barely talked about
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Is there any significance in Biden’s home state being more competitive than the other two you listed?
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I don’t think Delaware is competitive. Biden left Scranton at the age of 10.
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