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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

      There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a "shy Trump" effect.

      135 replies 224 retweets 1,935 likes
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    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

      People neglect the degree to which polling averages are themselves sort of a market-driven consensus. Their power of these averages comes as much from the fact that they incorporate different views about the electorate as that they provide for a larger sample size.

      12 replies 40 retweets 502 likes
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    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

      This also helps to explain why prediction markets have been largely unable to beat publicly-available polling-based models (e.g. 538's) over the years. The polling averages already account for many of the desirable characteristics of markets.

      10 replies 30 retweets 372 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

      Market participants don't really get this IMO, so the markets sometimes wind up doing a sort of double-counting. They'll say "polls were skewed against Trump in 2016, so they might be again in 2020". Not at all crazy! But the polling averages *may already be accounting for this*.

      6 replies 23 retweets 328 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

      If Clinton had won in 16, you wouldn't have as many Trafalgars publishing Trump +2 in every swing state. Pollsters wouldn't be doing as much education-weighting. Etc. Biden would likely have a larger lead *in the averages* even if his true standing in the electorate was the same.

      7:35 AM - 4 Sep 2020
      • 35 Retweets
      • 365 Likes
      • Zach Chase Lira 🏴‍☠️ Tim Laporte Douglas Vinton H Blake 🥁🍎 News Dan Abhishek Singh Brent
      11 replies 35 retweets 365 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

          Nate Silver Retweeted Norman Ornstein

          Rasmussen and Trafalgar are not highly-rated pollsters. I would not bet on them being right this year. But I think our *averages* are likely stronger for including a *dose* of them because it reflects a fuller consensus; that's what this thread was about.https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/1301892738573635584?s=20 …

          Nate Silver added,

          Norman OrnsteinVerified account @NormOrnstein
          Replying to @NateSilver538
          It is ridiculous to include bogus polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussen, which game the system, including doing polls when reputable operations are not in the field to get maximum exposure. A real failing by 538 and RCP. Gives legitimacy to the illegitimate
          49 replies 49 retweets 545 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Sep 2020

          p.s. This only applies to 538, not RCP. If you *are* going to arbitrarily pick-and-choose which polls to include, then there's no good argument for including Ras & Trafalgar while excluding many other higher-rated pollsters. 538 has actual rules, though:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-policy-and-faqs/ …

          25 replies 37 retweets 456 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. B.A. Meyer‏ @gwpbrianw 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          If Clinton had won Biden wouldn’t be running.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Twitati ➐  ⭐️‏ @TwiTati 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @gwpbrianw @NateSilver538

          X Democrat

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr. Chris Long‏ @dontturtmebro 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Is education-weighting at the state poll-level better this time around?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. jschulz‏ @jschulz79 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @dontturtmebro @NateSilver538

          Yes. Most weren't doing it at all 4 years ago...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. NCFL42 🇺🇸‏ @NCFL42 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Oh Nate. Give it up

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. James Morrison‏ @morralexand 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Right, but the education schism is a real difference in electorates that need to be accounted for in polling weights. Whereas the "Trump will beat his numbers by 2/3 points just because" stuff is pure voodoo / wishful thinking.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Sean Harding‏ @sharding 4 Sep 2020
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          This is kind of recursive, but is there any thinking on the effect that reporting the results of polls has on voter behavior? E.g. "the polls say X has no chance, so I might as well vote Y," thus fulfilling the prophecy. Is this even a real thing?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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