There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a "shy Trump" effect.
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Rasmussen and Trafalgar are not highly-rated pollsters. I would not bet on them being right this year. But I think our *averages* are likely stronger for including a *dose* of them because it reflects a fuller consensus; that's what this thread was about.https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/1301892738573635584?s=20 …
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p.s. This only applies to 538, not RCP. If you *are* going to arbitrarily pick-and-choose which polls to include, then there's no good argument for including Ras & Trafalgar while excluding many other higher-rated pollsters. 538 has actual rules, though:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-policy-and-faqs/ …
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If Clinton had won Biden wouldn’t be running.
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X Democrat
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Is education-weighting at the state poll-level better this time around?
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Yes. Most weren't doing it at all 4 years ago...
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Oh Nate. Give it up
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Right, but the education schism is a real difference in electorates that need to be accounted for in polling weights. Whereas the "Trump will beat his numbers by 2/3 points just because" stuff is pure voodoo / wishful thinking.
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This is kind of recursive, but is there any thinking on the effect that reporting the results of polls has on voter behavior? E.g. "the polls say X has no chance, so I might as well vote Y," thus fulfilling the prophecy. Is this even a real thing?
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