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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Sep 2

      Nate Silver Retweeted MonmouthPoll

      Not so hot for Biden here, whose Pennsylvania numbers have been worse than you might have expected all year (WI and MI have often been better for him, by comparison). Monmouth's July numbers were an exception to that, but this poll isn't.https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1301173306607972352 …

      Nate Silver added,

      MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll
      PENNSYLVANIA VOTER POLL: #GeneralElection matchup All registered voter: 49% @JoeBiden (53% in July) 45% @realDonaldTrump (40%) Likely voters, high turnout: 49% Biden (52%) 46% Trump (42%) Likely voters, low turnout: 48% Biden (51%) 47% Trump (44%) http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_090220/ … pic.twitter.com/xo9Hw2sapO
      153 replies 220 retweets 843 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Sep 2

      Keep in mind that Monmouth uses pretty small samples (n=400) and they're also not afraid to publish numbers that can diverge from the consensus (i.e. no herding, which is great). So their numbers can bounce around more than most.

      8:07 AM - 2 Sep 2020
      • 60 Retweets
      • 460 Likes
      • Anti-Beach Boys Aktion🇺🇸🍻 Green Giant Peyton (Also go by HerbGamer) Nick Jamal Clayton JT Garcia Ronald Dennis-Watson Suburban Guerrilla Ω D Chan
      41 replies 60 retweets 460 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Sep 2

          Biden now +4.2 in our Pennsylvania polling average, which is now the same as in Florida (+4.2). These are the most common tipping-point states. By comparison, he's at +7.1 in our national average, so we see the same 3-point gap as in 2016. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ …pic.twitter.com/pGUrl77ncQ

          16 replies 67 retweets 290 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Sep 2

          By comparison, he's at +6.2 in Wisconsin and +6.4 in Michigan. I keep waiting for these states to converge (if anything, you might expect PA to be better than WI for Biden) but it hasn't happened yet.

          37 replies 45 retweets 351 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Sep 2

          Arizona also polling at Biden +4.0, so based on polling averages alone, it's basically in a 3-way tie with PA and FL for being the tipping-point state. That could potentially yield this map where Biden wins 270-268.pic.twitter.com/pecIcXjioJ

          153 replies 130 retweets 612 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Jamma‏ @jamma789 Sep 2
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Probably why he went to Pittsburgh suburbs and is launching ads there this week

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Brad James L‏ @brad5320 Sep 2
          Replying to @jamma789 @NateSilver538

          Biden has been running ads in Pittsburgh all summer

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Hurrtense‏ @lolwutbrosef Sep 2
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          not mention exact same margin found by yesterdays morning consult numbers

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Avi Krishna‏ @krishna_avi Sep 2
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          That Bernie-Biden poll from a while ago (pre-primaries) is in a famous one.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Tony Corke‏ @MatterOfStats Sep 2
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Nate, is there ever even the tiniest part of you that goes "Bugger, that's not what I'd hoped for"?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Terry Goertzen‏ @canampolitico1 Sep 2
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          So is this a sample of 400?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jesse McConnell‏ @mcconnellj Sep 2
          Replying to @canampolitico1 @NateSilver538

          yes, with a very high margin of error. Probably a trend towards tightening but not this tight.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation

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