There's some polling out lately that shows a decline in support for BLM following a sharp increase in June. Some people have taken that to mean that Trump/Republican messaging on BLM is breaking thru. Plausible, but I'm not sure that's so straightforward. civiqs.com/results/black_
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An alternative inference is that BLM popularity is waning *because Trump is saying less about it*. His Twitter feed has made few references to "BLM"/"Black Lives Matter" over the past 6-8 weeks, and he's also used terms like "rioting" and "looting" much less often than in June.
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In other words, some of the popularity boost for BLM in June may have reflected a reaction against Trump / negative partisanship. Voters give Trump TERRIBLE marks for his handling of race relations and people may flock to the opposite position of whatever he says on these issues.
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This is relevant too. In Wisconsin, while there's been a big decline in support for BLM, evaluations of Trump's handling of the protests is just as bad as before.
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So for example, there's this very interesting finding in the last MU poll showing support for BLM plummeting in Wisconsin (pre-Kenosha). But same poll also had Trump at -26 on handling of protests. That's where people's prior frame was heading in, we'll see if it changes.
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That's not to say there are no risks here for Democrats. Maybe there is some degree of quiet backlash building to the protests (although note that support for BLM is still equal/higher than pre-protests). But if Trump tries to loudly exploit that, it could backfire.
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Imagine being in the position that black lives don't matter and then having the audacity to claim you aren't a racist.
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I mean...the timing looks pretty damn clear that the riots after Floyd was murdered pushed fence sitters against it.
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Seeing cities burn and the adults in charge suggesting we let the kids burn off some steam, is more powerful a motivator than anything the GOP suggests
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