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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Aug 12

      Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ …

      1,118 replies 2,327 retweets 8,646 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Aug 12

      Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! (Clinton 71%, Trump 29%) As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models.

      3:56 AM - 12 Aug 2020
      • 860 Retweets
      • 3,864 Likes
      • audra 💭🌷💖💜💙 Douglas Vinton H James T Cookies Advance Boudyka Zachary Tebbal KathyAnn 11/3/20 ✝️ 🙏🇺🇸 ArgentElly
      594 replies 860 retweets 3,864 likes
        1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Aug 12

          Here's my summation of why the model thinks Trump still has decent chances, despite his current poll deficit. Longer thread later once I'm more awake/more people are awake. But for now go check out the VERY cool graphics and art by our team!https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/ …

          236 replies 593 retweets 1,934 likes
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        2. Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro Aug 12
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Have you run an analysis of what this year’s model would have said through the course of the 2016 election?

          8 replies 1 retweet 200 likes
        3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Aug 12
          Replying to @jbarro

          It would say very similar things about 2016 to what our 2016 model said. Might have been a bit less bouncy in places, but not a huge difference.

          21 replies 0 retweets 80 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. gianduja kiss‏ @giandujakiss Aug 12
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          you are trying to kill me

          0 replies 0 retweets 146 likes
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        2. Robert Rio‏ @RobertRio22 Aug 12
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          I demand absolute certainty.

          1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
        3. Your Uncle Who Works At Nintendo‏ @DustyJHodges Aug 12
          Replying to @RobertRio22 @NateSilver538

          I've got a model that will give you an answer with 100% certainty, but sadly it won't be ready until Thanksgiving.

          1 reply 0 retweets 23 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. George‏ @srynotgeorge Aug 12
          Replying to @BegForTheEnd @NateSilver538

          Yea you’re right that’s exactly how probability works

          0 replies 0 retweets 59 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Adair PaidMoreTaxesThanTrump Arrowsmith‏ @AdairBlackmore Aug 12
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Dynamic is different. Undecideds go away from negatives and Trump has all the negatives this time around

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. LisaSmith‏ @KnowingJLisa Aug 14
          Replying to @AdairBlackmore @NateSilver538

          Exactly and i think that most the undecided will go to Biden this time around

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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