Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ …
-
-
Here's my summation of why the model thinks Trump still has decent chances, despite his current poll deficit. Longer thread later once I'm more awake/more people are awake. But for now go check out the VERY cool graphics and art by our team!https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/ …
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Have you run an analysis of what this year’s model would have said through the course of the 2016 election?
-
It would say very similar things about 2016 to what our 2016 model said. Might have been a bit less bouncy in places, but not a huge difference.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
you are trying to kill me
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I demand absolute certainty.
-
I've got a model that will give you an answer with 100% certainty, but sadly it won't be ready until Thanksgiving.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Yea you’re right that’s exactly how probability works
End of conversation
-
-
-
Dynamic is different. Undecideds go away from negatives and Trump has all the negatives this time around
-
Exactly and i think that most the undecided will go to Biden this time around
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.