This does anticipate some degree of an economic rebound. Economic conditions as of *today* would point toward more like a 10-point popular vote loss (actually pretty close to current polls).
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One other thing on this... you do get better (backtested) results if you adjust for the degree of polarization. A projected ~6 point Trump deficit in the popular vote today would be more like 10 points in an era with average polarization.
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It's also very likely that greater polarization also decreases the incumbency advantage. If you imagine a generic incumbent president (not Trump) in an average economy, we'd expect them to win the popular vote by only ~3 points given polarization today.
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One other dorky note. We've actually calculated an economic index for elections dating back to 1880. The figure expressed in the table below is basically a z-score combining several different variables. Estimates before 1948 are crude:pic.twitter.com/LeIoYN5YjE
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Overall, we find that since 1880, the economy explains about 30% of variation in the incumbent party's vote share if you adjust for polarization (26% if you don't). We believe this is a more realistic estimate than other models that are fit (often overfit) to more recent data.
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In 1880-1944, you have bigger and more varied economic shocks that are probably more comparable to what's happening today than anything (except perhaps 2007/08) in the postwar era. You also have higher levels of polarization vs. the mid/late 20c. So it's useful data for a model.
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Favored to lose
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Did you factor in an alien invasion ?
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Can’t forget zombie virus outbreak, either
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how much changes in your model from election to election?
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