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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

    Nate Silver Retweeted Josh Dawsey

    I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial.https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1257395401461727232 …

    Nate Silver added,

    Josh DawseyVerified account @jdawsey1
    A draft report prepared by Johns Hopkins researchers for the CDC shows 200K deaths by June 1. White House does not agree. A "cubic model" prepared by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett & team predicts deaths essentially stop by May 15. Our latest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html …
    6:06 PM - 4 May 2020
    • 1,963 Retweets
    • 10,568 Likes
    • Matt Moores Kabelo Moiloa Yasmin Wright Hot takes, weakly held Mike CattyEllieLou💕💧 rsspbxx Gabriel Guzman Danielle Freeman
    285 replies 1,963 retweets 10,568 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

        Like this took me 45 seconds and it seems to match the description of the "cubic model" quite well.pic.twitter.com/s91O6CTkw1

        252 replies 668 retweets 5,553 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 5 May 2020

        Nate Silver Retweeted CEA45 Archived

        LOLhttps://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/1257680258364555264?s=20 …

        Nate Silver added,

        CEA45 ArchivedVerified account @WhiteHouseCEA45
        To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well. pic.twitter.com/NtJcOdA98R
        Show this thread
        68 replies 168 retweets 1,542 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. 𝙹𝚘𝚜𝚑𝚞𝚊 𝚁𝚞𝚜𝚜𝚘‏ @DjoshUnchained 4 May 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        I’ll take that bet, I like losing money.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Leah McElrath  🏳️‍🌈‏ @leahmcelrath 4 May 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Made by Jared on his iPad.

        9 replies 8 retweets 330 likes
      3. Col. Panic‏ @PANIC_CPU 4 May 2020
        Replying to @leahmcelrath @NateSilver538

        No way Jared could even figure this out.

        2 replies 0 retweets 157 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Andy Schwarz, presented by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 4 May 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        yeah, I wouldn't take the other side of that bet at anything close to even money.

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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      2. Roger Mexico‏ @roger_mexico 4 May 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        It’s based on this:https://timecube.2enp.com 

        4 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
      3. nuvs‏ @nuvs 4 May 2020
        Replying to @roger_mexico @NateSilver538

        I couldn't get past this part in the intro 😂 Â Â Marshmallow A Lie & Word Is Lies. Â Â Navel Connects 4 Corner 4s. Â God Is Born Of A Mother – Â Â She Left Belly B. Signature.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      2. Floyd Elliot‏ @FloydElliot 4 May 2020

        "By which I mean, I was high when I typed it into Excel."

        2 replies 0 retweets 115 likes
      3. Show replies

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