Put another way, the differences between Sweden and other countries will probably become more obvious over time, assuming everyone maintains their current course.
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Seeing some "Sweden's outcomes aren't actually *that* bad compared to other countries" sentiment. But here's the thing: Sweden's deaths are still increasing at a pretty sharp rate (though note week vs. weekend reporting issues) which is NOT true in most of the US and Europe.pic.twitter.com/LLjNucYx7q
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Sweden *is* doing *some* social distancing and they have other advantages (e.g. low # of persons per household). So maybe their R is 1.2 or 1.3 or something. In the short run, an R of 1.2 may not look *that* different from one of, say, 0.8 or 0.9. Both will be fairly flat.
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In the medium-to-long run, though, "fairly flat but slightly growing" (Sweden) winds up being a LOT different than "fairly flat but slightly shrinking" (likely where most of the US and Western Europe are with current lockdown measures).
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That doesn't *necessarily* mean Sweden's health care system will eventually be overwhelmed. I have no idea about that either way. It does mean that a large % of the Swedish population will eventually get COVID-19. In fact, that's what they're counting on: herd immunity.
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Basically, Sweden is attempting the "flatten the curve" strategy from the blue curve on this famous graphic. They are not really trying to limit the total number of cases. They *are* trying to spread them out. So they're pursuing the blue strategy, not the red one.pic.twitter.com/nBTe2d6lDi
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Conversely, other countries are attempting something like the green curve. They *are* trying to limit the total number of cases... for now, anyway.pic.twitter.com/K7rzcxYa3a
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The green curve is great except—unless you eradicate the it completely or get a vaccine, most people are still susceptible and cases will start increasing again once you relax too much. Perhaps in practice you wind up with several waves of distancing being turned off and on.pic.twitter.com/MeqvkzvLr4
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To be clear, I think the green is the least-worst option and that Sweden/blue is mistaken, because green buys you time to get a vaccine, treatments, or mass testing/tracing. But when you talk about "flattening the curve", be clear whether you mean the green way or the blue one.
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End of conversation
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Down by half today vs yesterday
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that decline has happened the other two weeks. I think the guy who reports it goes home at noon on Friday
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