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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Feb 7

    I would guess, based on his polling in NH which is where we have the most data, that Buttigieg is gonna get a slightly bigger national surge than our model is assuming. That's because voters & the media seem to treat IA as a win for Buttigieg when our model thinks of it as a tie.

    5:16 AM - 7 Feb 2020
    • 241 Retweets
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    • Johannes Saca ⬆️mystic↙️↗️trends⬇️ Scott McEwan Coffeemancer Vanvidum Matthias King Mitch Gardepe 6%Jeffrey17 - WWG1WGA Jackjohnhenry Sean's News Network
    271 replies 241 retweets 2,517 likes
      1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 Feb 7

        Relatedly, although he made a lot of gains there before Iowa, Sanders's polling is pretty flat in NH *since* Iowa. More consistent with what you'd expect from what is perceived as a 2nd-place finish in Iowa rather than a tie or win.

        90 replies 53 retweets 705 likes
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      2. Fluffy4Joe‏ @fluffyglof Feb 7
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Because, maybe... he won

        19 replies 0 retweets 61 likes
      3. Spooky Business Decision Pikachu‏ @ActivistPikachu Feb 7
        Replying to @fluffyglof @NateSilver538

        if you tie for delegates and get fewer votes, you at best tied and at worst lost imo.

        3 replies 1 retweet 317 likes
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      2. Arthur Bradley‏ @ArthurBradley10 Feb 7
        Replying to @DanielHofheinz @NateSilver538

        Sanders chance of becoming nominee on 538? 1 in 2. Buttigieg? 1 in 20. But keep pretending the model is biased against Sanders if that’s what helps you sleep at night

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Mark Howard (Not a Russian spy, promise)‏ @ChaudoinWilliam Feb 7
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Which is problematic cause he'll probably end up losing it in the long run.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. ArcaneSyntax‏ @Arcane_Syntax Feb 7
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Maybe because he was slightly ahead in the drip feeding of caucus data we got?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Jack‏ @QuinZee33 Feb 7
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Your model should probably account for a national media bias against Sanders. It is completely unsurprising to me that they're spinning it as a win for Buttigieg even though it was a tie between him and Sanders.

        7 replies 4 retweets 101 likes
      3. Elijah  🧢 | Wear a MASK!  😷 😷 😷‏ @MrJellyJar Feb 7
        Replying to @QuinZee33 @NateSilver538

        I'm really enjoying the trendy nomination analysis of treating a popular vote win as equivalent to a delegate win. It is sure to matter once the nominee is in the general election… where the popular vote is irrelevant.

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      2. Ubuntu  🌹  ☮️‏ @solidarity1986 Feb 7
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        My model looks at it as a loss for Pete. His delegate lead is strictly from coin tosses, not votes.

        4 replies 1 retweet 92 likes
      3. Cadoc‏ @TheCadoc Feb 7
        Replying to @solidarity1986 @NateSilver538

        If Sanders wanted popular vote to matter he shouldn't have insisted that Iowa keeps its caucus.

        12 replies 0 retweets 79 likes
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