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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Verified account
@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 23 Jan 2020

    What are the chances of a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn*? * More accurately described as a "contested convention".https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-are-the-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/ …

    8:51 AM - 23 Jan 2020
    • 19 Retweets
    • 124 Likes
    • Chu Noah Scholl 𝕁𝕖𝕣𝕠𝕞𝕖 ℙ𝕒𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕝𝕝 Cameraadds10lbs Gotta Get Thru This Restore New York Peter L. CC Gibbs/S Johnson Bruce le parisien ute fan
    20 replies 19 retweets 124 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 23 Jan 2020

        Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes. That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though. Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^pic.twitter.com/dKIUWrHx2c

        22 replies 31 retweets 131 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 23 Jan 2020

        However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance: —Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren —Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16 —Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑

        16 replies 10 retweets 89 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. ADB1680‏ @ADB1680 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        "Less likely than you think." NO ONE BUT YOU HAS EVER SAID THERE WOULD BE A CONTESTED CONVENTION

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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      1. semi-pro woolgatherer‏ @earational 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        PLeaSe DOn'T tRy

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. FirefighterGeek 🚒 Caution: Filling is Hot‏ @FirefighterGeek 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        I can't remember any election since I started paying attention, where at this point in the process people were not making this speculation.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Alyson Metzger‏ @AlysonMetzger 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        pic.twitter.com/EHx8owIyCp

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Gill‏ @gillsterein 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Gill Retweeted Nate Silver

        Even if establishment candidates choose to stay in to prevent Sanders from running away w/ majority, would voters do the same? Your theory ignores bandwagon effect and voting behavior.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1220390108983123968 …

        Gill added,

        Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
        However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance: —Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren —Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16 —Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. iSavage_PI  🔪‏ @iSavage_PI 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        No need to read this: The chances of a brokered convention is precisely 33% https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6168/Will-the-Democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2020 …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Old Bull TV‏ @OldBullTV 23 Jan 2020
        Replying to @iSavage_PI @NateSilver538

        538's too-low estimate of the odds of a brokered convention may be tied to their too-high expectations for Biden in both IA and NH.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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