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A lot of the analysis that asks "how is Biden still winning?" seems to miss a major element in his support: A lot of D voters are moderate, or "somewhat liberal" rather than "very liberal", and prefer Biden's somewhat liberal, Obama-ish policy positions to Warren/Bernie/etc.

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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

I'm a broken record on this, but the contrast between the media perception of Biden's doing vs. the polls is fairly profound and should probably beget more self-reflection. He's basically in the same position in the RCP average today (27%) as when he launched his campaign (29%).

5:56 PM · Oct 27, 2019

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Biden's still an underdog relative to the field IMO. Certainly not the most robust frontrunner. Warren campaign going well. Others have a shot. But his position has been steady enough for long enough that some of the savvy early DC takes on his viability already qualify as wrong.

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I like facts. But I would sure like Klobachar to do better.

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and

The Economist ran an admiring profile of Klobachar recently. My problem is with reports of pettiness with her staff and even in her campaign bio. It suggests she's a bad boss, a bad manager. Very unfortunate, possibly fixable, but not for 2020.

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Only point is polls readjusting down for Biden after 2 losses w Iowa and NH. Then Super Tuesday and the Southern primaries, Biden’s core. Tack CA onto that, not his core. Could be neck and neck delegate wise Biden Warren.

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It's going to be so fun watching you try to explain Biden's utter, obvious collapse as it happens!

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Or he wins, or loses a close primary to Warren, or any other number of equally likely outcomes occur that, sadly, won't let people smugly complain about someone pointing out facts to refute a bias.

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This data says there is one candidate winning, one treading water, and everyone else is losing.

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Data doesn’t say anything analysis does.

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A. S. Rivers, MS, CMN, RPIC

@Winking_Buddha

Oct 27, 2019

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@NateSilver538

We have way too long presidential campaign and it hurts good candidates who cannot afford to campaign for 1-2 years before a primary, let alone convention & election

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A lot of it is Warren made a game of it. Her getting co-front runner status is the impressive accomplishment, not that Biden lost support.

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I think some of it is that Warren is a wine track, feminist candidate who is very attractive to liberals in the media & the dominant online voices. (And I say this as someone who likes Warren.) So the moment any poll shows any improvement, there's a rush to say she's passed Biden

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