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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 24 Sep 2019

      This is a list Bernie Sanders' standing in all early- state polls since the Houston debate IA: 9% (David Binder Research) IA: 11% (Selzer) NH: 12% (Monmouth) NV: 14% (Suffolk) IA: 16% (Civiqs)

      151 replies 137 retweets 759 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 24 Sep 2019

      This is a fairly craptastic series of polls in three states that ought to be relatively strong for Sanders. In 2016, he won 50% of the vote in Iowa, 47% in Nevada, 60% in New Hampshire.

      83 replies 51 retweets 583 likes
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      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 24 Sep 2019

      Sanders will probably get some better polls later (I'm surprised this set has been *so* bad). But for all the complaints about the media not treating Sanders as a frontrunner, polling in the low/mid teens in early states that ought to be strong for you is not frontrunner stuff.

      9:16 AM - 24 Sep 2019
      • 57 Retweets
      • 687 Likes
      • new zealand, who dis 🏳️‍🌈 Will you shut up, man? Brian Harrison, Ph.D. 🏳️‍🌈 Corey sepik121 alejandra so called meg Bob Munsil TRANSform
      120 replies 57 retweets 687 likes
        1. Joseph Urban‏ @jurban1997 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          maybe this is evidence that the culture is changing more quickly?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Joel Kim Booster‏Verified account @ihatejoelkim 24 Sep 2019

          90% of the replies to this tweet are people predicting responses from Bernie supporters.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Art Radley‏ @g00dneighbour 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Hillary was poison for a lot of people. He was the only viable alternative. Not the case in 2019.

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. This Charming Man‏ @QueerHope 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @g00dneighbour @NateSilver538

          And that's it in a nutshell. Sanders did well as an alternative candidate--in a free-for-all, he's not really an alternative for anything anymore.

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Smallandgo‏ @dugmartsch 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @Conor_Cotton22 @NateSilver538

          Are you taking bets?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. DaveM0820 🧢‏ @dmit0820 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          DaveM0820 🧢 Retweeted Emerson College Polling

          Yang is at 8% in this national poll, passing Buttigieg for 4th place.https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1176527538107158529 …

          DaveM0820 🧢 added,

          Emerson College Polling @EmersonPolling
          NATIONAL POLL: @JoeBiden, @ewarren, and @BernieSanders lead the #Democratic Primary https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-national-poll-warren-surges-biden-slips-and-sanders-holds-creating-three-way-dead-heat-for-the-nomination … pic.twitter.com/U6ikvCcpsM
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Max Power‏ @MaxPower_007 24 Sep 2019
          Replying to @dmit0820 @NateSilver538

          ...and he's still in 4th place, 14 points back of 3rd. He's also not above 3% in any other poll, meaning that's almost certainly an outlier. Don't celebrate a single poll when every other poll is saying something different.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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