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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 12 Jun 2019

    Nate Silver Retweeted Status Coup

    Pretty irresponsible by Sanders campaign manager @fshakir to endorse the theory that polls are "oversampling" older voters. Short THREAD follows:https://twitter.com/StatusCoup/status/1138508125127024642 …

    Nate Silver added,

    Status Coup @StatusCoup
    In interview w/ Status Coup, @BernieSanders' camp manager @fshakir calls out "suspect" polling showing @JoeBiden w/ a big lead (that oversample older voters). He also noted corporate media attacks on Sanders--who don't disclose their conflicts of interest https://statuscoup.com/bernie-sanders-campaign-manager-faiz-shakir-on-skewed-polls-corporate-media-conflicts/ …
    9:17 AM - 12 Jun 2019
    • 241 Retweets
    • 879 Likes
    • BLM M4A GND antifa Bernie wins 2020🌹Ⓥ lisa Arjun Jaikumar A Funny Thing Happened OTW To The Revolution 🐼 D avid Peter MacDonald Clare Schirrmeister David Schneider-Joseph Stephen Gretz
    271 replies 241 retweets 879 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 12 Jun 2019

        Younger voters are harder to reach, but pollsters attempt to compensate for that by upweighting the younger voters they do reach to match their projected composition of the electorate, as @fshakir surely knows.

        38 replies 54 retweets 336 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 12 Jun 2019

        This adds error/uncertainty, and primary polling is generally a rough enterprise, but the polls are probably about as likely to be overestimating Sanders as underestimating him.

        19 replies 39 retweets 330 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 12 Jun 2019

        For instance, Sanders is doing worse with voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, which might be a sign that he'll *lose* ground with the actual electorate (or in likely voter polls) as compared with the registered voter polls you see now.

        34 replies 91 retweets 511 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 12 Jun 2019

        Overall, I remain taken by surprise at how taken by surprise the Sanders campaign seems to be that Biden is polling in front of them. A lot will change between now and Iowa and polls could be off even then, but they seem to have a lot of wishful thinking in lieu of a strategy.

        115 replies 131 retweets 795 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Jake McMillian‏ @JakeMcMillian 12 Jun 2019
        Replying to @GarryTheBot @NateSilver538 @fshakir

        The alternative is to have a sample size that is meaningless. So pollsters add weight to the groups of people (e.g., young folk) who are harder to reach. It's not that older voters are being *oversampled*: it's that young voters are *undersampled*.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Je'veg Ⓥ‏ @veg_je 12 Jun 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @fshakir

        Polls are to be taken with a grain of salt. I have never been polled in my life. Who are these folks that get polled? People with land telephone lines? Not so many folks have a land line anymore.

        4 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
      3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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      1. Matthew Rettenmund‏ @mattrett 12 Jun 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @fshakir

        It would seem the Democratic primary is oversampling older contenders.

        0 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
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      1. PettyThief‏ @UneducatdExpert 12 Jun 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @fshakir

        A problem unique to today's politics: someone mentions misinformation coming from "Sanders", I automatically assume it is the White House version.

        0 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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