I don't really buy it, but the argument political scientists would historically make is that economic fundamentals should reassert themself as you get closer (IE, Dukakis was always doomed, etc etc)
It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1122675386406580225 …
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IMO there's no particular reason to think voters will be more focused on the economy as you get closer (especially for a president like Trump who's not very focused, period). A better theory is probably that an *improving* economy should *improve* a president's approval ratings.
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The general tendency toward consistent midterm losses (even in good economies!) does suggest that there is some decoupling between economic and electoral outcomes that happens in the middle of terms, no?
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Well it could suggest a lot of things including that the whole "economy drives presidential elections" hypothesis is at best about 30% true and about 70% p-hacked/overfit/poorly-specified models.
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I found/find your old blog post on this pretty compelling https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/measuring-the-effect-of-the-economy-on-elections/ …pic.twitter.com/nG1y8cM51B
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I wanna know why all these pundits think the economy not being in the toilet is a guarantee of reelection? It's the same economy Obama had (at the end of his term). Nothing has changed for those at the bottom. But Hewitt thinks bc HIS 401k is doing great, that's all that matters.
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Not to mention that inflated real estate/rental prices hurt many Americans. Savings accounts/CD rates are a joke. Wage growth is below where it was 20 years ago. The tax plan capped SALT/mortgage deductions. GDP is stuck around 3% (over 4% in the 90’s). I’ve seen much better!
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It was written by Hugh frick-ing Hewitt. Enough said.
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Why does anyone pay
@hughhewitt anything? He is a hypocritical apologist for Trump. I don't think a single wise thing has ever came out of his mouth. Nobody listens to his radio program and I know I turn the channel when he comes on TV.Grazas. Twitter empregará isto para facer a túa cronoloxía mellor. DesfacerDesfacer
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Ever hear an inverted yield curve? Overpriced stocks due in part to buy backs? Escalating trade deficits? This economy is not going to hold.
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Correct. By this time next year the recession will be in full swing and Trump won't have a clue what to do about it.
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He won't win any states he didn't win last time. He is likely to lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and more than likely Wisconsin. Dems advantage of they don't screw it up.
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But they already are. Far left agenda will drive away middle America.
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That far-left agenda might not be as far-left as you think. It only seems far-left when you reference it from how far-right America has slanted since Reagan. Everything has a season, and the far-right America is changing.
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Parece que a carga tarda un chisco
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