Nate SilverVerified account

The shameless 24/7 Pete promotion that is your feed is getting embarassing.

Your reply has the most likes but it shows up hidden behind twitter’s “Show more replies”. Censorship is real.https://twitter.com/ccpolitics123/status/1120077307455201281 …

I wonder if being muted by the OP affects that.

It works like this. 1. Media reports on “rising star” candidate that they like 2. Candidate rises in polls 3. Media talks about how candidate is surging It’s a feedback loop. People need to learn the truth about Buttigieg before it’s too late.https://twitter.com/ccpolitics123/status/1120077307455201281 …

He was given a CNN townhall without even declaring his candidacy.

I mean insofar as you can say that about the 'exploratory' stage of campaigns. It's a thing you say so you can make sure your gut was right before making it 'official' with a big splash event. In any real sense he had been running for some time, already.

I know, which is what makes the lack of policy an bigger issue to me. He has effectively been running for months but has not clearly laid out what he plans on doing. To me, it seems very strange to say "support me now, don't worry I'll tell you my plans later"

It is cause he doesn’t know his policies yet. He is waiting for that memo from his corporate sponsors. It is an uncomfortable truth. Probably more endless wars on the horizon. The only real policy he has actively pushed so far is mandatory service.

Yes, corporate sponsors were really excited to tell this democratic candidate that he should support a public option opposite private insurance designed to transition into M4A. That would make a lot of sense for the private sector to be shilling for.

Everything he says is so carefully scripted. He made sure to point out that he doesn’t see it replacing private insurance at least in the near term. He knows that “Medicare for All” polls well with the public. There is no way he actually implements it as president.

I got your consistent right herehttps://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1117752348632334337?s=09 …

Nate never talks about the Emerson polls. Not on twitter, not on his podcast, not on the 538 website. It's pretty revealing. He's happy to entertain a poll that his own site gave a C+ rating than a poll that his site gave a B+

Most hurt candidates by Buttigeg surge ses to be Kampala Harris and Beto (specially in celebrity endorsements). Bernie and Biden have been pretty much unfazed

At first I was surprised Harris supporters are getting eaten up by Buttigieg, but it looks like highly educated voters like Harris a lot, and those are the ones who are passionate about Buttigieg.

It empirically is, by several measures now.

Also: polls are absolutely empirical evidence, taken in aggregate. Also also: A dictionary wouldn't really be very helpful here, that's more of an encyclopedia job. Get both.