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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 14 Apr 2019

      Not prompted by anything in particular, but I continue to think Democrats' extremely proportional delegate allocation rules are a big problem for them, making it much more likely that a nominee must chosen at the convention. You probably want some winner-take-all delegates.

      72 replies 95 retweets 670 likes
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      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 14 Apr 2019

      If I were designing a system, I'd have it staggered, so something like: February states: 20% of delegates go to state winner; rest are proportional with a 15% qualifying theshold. March: 40% winner take all April: 60% WTA May: 80% WTA June: 100% WTA

      8:42 AM - 14 Apr 2019
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      48 replies 38 retweets 539 likes
        1. Uncredentialed‏ @uncredentialed 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Have any candidates been asked if you’d like a single popular vote?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. (((John))) is mad on the Internet‏ @tehoriman 14 Apr 2019

          Why shouldn't people be able to vote proportional like most other countries manage?

          0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. End of conversation
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        2. The Masked Clam‏ @the_stormclam 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @chicspace @NateSilver538

          It's weird to complain about the Electoral College and then actively try to engineer a primary system that generates early and decisive wins from a handful of non-representative states. Let all the states vote at once at the end of the campaign.

          2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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        2. S D Winkler‏ @sdwinkler 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          But the 15% threshold makes it top-2 take all or top-3 take all. So while not winner take all, it will concentrate delegates and make a majority more likely for someone before the convention.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. S D Winkler‏ @sdwinkler 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @sdwinkler @NateSilver538

          In an early state with such a large field it is a reasonable probability (~20%) that it will be winner take all with one candidate only breaking over 15%.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Adam‏ @AdamBeckett09 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          You continue to say smart things. Well done.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Matt‏ @jonesm80 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          See, the problem is, that you're just designing a dumb system to replace another dumb system. All primaries should be held on the same day.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Ser_Squire‏ @Ser_Squire 14 Apr 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          That would have led to replacing the narrow split in the Montana delegation instead being 100% Bernie in 2016. That could have completely sunk Bullocks chances for reelection if such a narrow wing of the state party had been the only representation on the national stage.

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