Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Verified account
@NateSilver538

Tweets

Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 14 Mar 2019

    The argument that Democrats have a high likelihood* of a contested convention is quite simple and straightforward, and I don't find the rebuttals to it very convincing at all. * "High" doesn't necessarily mean >50%.

    2:27 PM - 14 Mar 2019
    • 37 Retweets
    • 312 Likes
    • name cannot be blank Nimrod Aviram Joe Sierputowski 🎄 Stephie Jay is gay 🇲🇽 🇱🇧 Svsrg Katey BLM y'all! Luiz Rodrigues Christian Krueger 🏳️‍🌈🖖
    35 replies 37 retweets 312 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 14 Mar 2019

        1a. There are a ton of candidates. 1b. The number of candidates is predictive of what share of the vote the top candidates receive. 2. Democratic rules—in contrast the past—are set up such that unless someone gets close to 50% of the *vote*, they can't win on the first ballot.

        15 replies 22 retweets 207 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 14 Mar 2019

        https://53eig.ht/2GGuiVq pic.twitter.com/WnWh5DjEgw

        24 replies 26 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Where Y'at?‏ @YatPundit 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        let's revisit this after Iowa.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Sean Coveney  🧢‏ @WTSnurb 15 Mar 2019
        Replying to @YatPundit @NateSilver538

        There would be mass suicides - BY US DEMOCRATS!!!!!!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Andy Johnson 100‏ @100Zeus 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Then you mean higher than usual.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. K. Koth, PhD‏ @kkoth 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @100Zeus @NateSilver538

        Correct. "High likelihood" alone sure sounds to me like >50%.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Bee Rad‏ @brad_seattle 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Isn’t it really early to be discussing this?

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. John James‏ @musicman495 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @brad_seattle @NateSilver538

        Reporters talk about this every four years because it would make the conventions a better story and relevant beyond optics. But it last happened to Dems before TV coverage of conventions 65+ years ago.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Harsha‏ @hr072 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        There will be dropouts after every primary. Even before Super Tuesday. And after March 4th 2020, there would just be a couple of contenders and Bernie.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. George Kaplan‏ @Dski22George 14 Mar 2019
        Replying to @hr072 @NateSilver538

        And Hillary will sweep in to force a brokered convention.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2021 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info