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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Mar 2019

    Forgot about this article I did 8 years ago but it's a pretty good read on the reliability of early primary polling.https://53eig.ht/2HaGMpm 

    8:47 AM - 11 Mar 2019
    • 34 Retweets
    • 144 Likes
    • Svsrg Mark Solomon DS Gar Rusty simon Brian Blank Tequehead Saloni
    16 replies 34 retweets 144 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Mar 2019

        This is probably the key chart. Name recognition certainly *does* matter. Overall, though, it's probably both the case that (i) Biden and Bernie aren't especially impressive frontrunners and (ii) None of the low-name-recognition candidates are off to an amazing start either.pic.twitter.com/IEJKDfWuGA

        19 replies 41 retweets 156 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Mar 2019

        Deleted an inaccurate follow-up tweet on this one. The polls I was looking at actually *were* for January thru June of the year before the election, e.g. the period we're in right now. So the data from that article is applicable to today.

        7 replies 6 retweets 50 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. Bryan Rice‏ @bricey16 11 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        The Trump/Pawlenty bit is kind of beautiful in hindsight

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. tru-story‏ @Cozzy_was_Wrong 11 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        if I click that and the article is longer than "its not reliable." i am going to be disappointed.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. KEYROCK, Unfrozen‏ @Next__Pope 11 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        So what you're saying is that at 1% Hickenlooper still has a chance? Awesome.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. CoachPalmer‏ @CoachPalmer3 11 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Everybody: just pointing out where wisdom DOESNT help us not legitimate. One freak election doesn't invalidate. And yes, things Change. Just read and learn and improve it if you want. There are thousands of races each cycle.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. B. Loewe‏ @BstandsforB 11 Mar 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Real question - if we're going to rehash previous polling. Are there lessons from the big miss of 2016? Rather than "still right," are there insights and shifts being made? If the lesson is that there was reliability before, how do we explain the failure of 2016 polling?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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