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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      Nate Silver Retweeted

      It's far more likely that the Russians were just throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and seeing what stuck and that basing it on Cambridge Analytica data wouldn't have been meaningfully more effective than doing it at random. https://twitter.com/TedGenoways/status/1074800258721476608 …

      Nate Silver added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      220 replies 399 retweets 2,257 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      If you wrote out a list of the most important factors in the 2016 election, I'm not sure that Russian social media memes would be among the top 100. The scale was quite small and there's not much evidence that they were effective.

      477 replies 1,309 retweets 3,906 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      For instance, this story makes a big deal about a (post-election) Russian social media disinformation campaign on Bob Mueller based on... 5,000 tweets? That's **nothing**. Platform-wide, there are something like 500,000,000 tweets posted each day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/technology/russian-disinformation-teams-targeted-robert-s-mueller-iii-says-report-prepared-for-senate/2018/12/17/0e0047f6-0230-11e9-8186-4ec26a485713_story.html?utm_term=.c8c3515a6838&__twitter_impression=true …pic.twitter.com/I2XOIf0rdy

      107 replies 366 retweets 1,162 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      What fraction of overall social media impressions on the 2016 election were generated by Russian troll farms? 0.1%? I'm not sure what the answer is, but suspect it's low, and it says something that none of the reports that hype up the importance of them address that question.

      6:08 PM - 17 Dec 2018
      • 718 Retweets
      • 2,342 Likes
      • Morgan VOTE every time Denouncer of Everything risate FakeAmericaHateAgain Big Gav TBrad RichardWeigel 🌺🌹🌻 K!LLA CAM 🌺🇺🇸⏳
      493 replies 718 retweets 2,342 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jesse‏ @decadent_creed 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          wow it's almost like they'd need to target specific voters if only they'd hacked voter information

          1 reply 0 retweets 85 likes
        3. Jason 🌹 🌻‏ @Extropian85 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @decadent_creed @NateSilver538

          Target specific voters? Let HRC know about that groundbreaking strategy, didn't even visit Wisconsin during the general election season, too busy collecting that sweet elite donor money.

          2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jim Hendler‏ @jahendler 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          research shows that the affect on undecided voters of social media ads/prompts, even if not clicked, could (and I stress could) be extremely large - see research of @DrREpstein for example...

          3 replies 9 retweets 14 likes
        3. Burton Fisher‏ @FisherBurton 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @jahendler @NateSilver538 @DrREpstein

          Oh, my that's a load of unfounded bs. David Brock pushed a million more CTR pro-Hillary trolls. Using that logic, that must have gotten her the information

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Doug Lockhart‏ @seattlediamonds 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @OutsideStats @NateSilver538

          I couldn't agree more. Isn't it time for Nate to start predicting probabilities for the Golden Globes or something?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. Mark Bjorge‏ @MarkBjorge 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          The margin of victory was similarly low. Why confuse people?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. K, not K‏ @kphextwin 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          you would need deep cooperation from social media companies and intel investigators to answer that, and both have been less than forthcoming/forthright on tge subject

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. David Gondek‏ @mutex7 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @kphextwin @NateSilver538

          Putin has gotten to pretty much everyone except a core group of Hillary supporters, establishment media and the intel agencies.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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