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It's far more likely that the Russians were just throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and seeing what stuck and that basing it on Cambridge Analytica data wouldn't have been meaningfully more effective than doing it at random. https://twitter.com/TedGenoways/status/1074800258721476608 …
If you wrote out a list of the most important factors in the 2016 election, I'm not sure that Russian social media memes would be among the top 100. The scale was quite small and there's not much evidence that they were effective.
For instance, this story makes a big deal about a (post-election) Russian social media disinformation campaign on Bob Mueller based on... 5,000 tweets? That's **nothing**. Platform-wide, there are something like 500,000,000 tweets posted each day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/technology/russian-disinformation-teams-targeted-robert-s-mueller-iii-says-report-prepared-for-senate/2018/12/17/0e0047f6-0230-11e9-8186-4ec26a485713_story.html?utm_term=.c8c3515a6838&__twitter_impression=true …pic.twitter.com/I2XOIf0rdy
What fraction of overall social media impressions on the 2016 election were generated by Russian troll farms? 0.1%? I'm not sure what the answer is, but suspect it's low, and it says something that none of the reports that hype up the importance of them address that question.
Same here. I still think people do not grasp how prolific it was. I felt like I was losing my mind watching it happen in real time.
Reached 120 million, I thought?
And simultaneously hacked 120 million brains, eliminating free will. The field of philosophy will never be the same.
The scale of the difference between an R and a D vote in key states was quite small. In case you hadn't noticed.
As far as effectiveness goes, don't send a statistical thinker to do a humanities and psychology job. This was about meaning and cognition and about how messages pass around in paratexts and affect people. You can't measure it using your usual instruments, so don't try.
I wouldn't describe 70-30 odds as a predicting a landslide.
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