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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 6 Nov 2018

    Our final forecasts are up (!). Nothing really changed. The Deluxe version of our House model gives Democrats a 6 in 7 chance of winning the House and the GOP a 1 in 7 chance. Median outcome = D+36 seats. The 80 percentile range runs from D+20 to D+54. https://53eig.ht/2OI4FEE pic.twitter.com/MB04CZZCmv

    8:13 AM - 6 Nov 2018
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    • Home Decor Ideas LatestNews.co.uk Alan // Neptunius 🌈💗 💙 Femboy Ham 💙 Mahanund Das Ford Watkins Mark R. Cheadle Ray Ashley
    101 replies 401 retweets 892 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 6 Nov 2018

        The Lite version of our model, which is based polls only, is slightly more conservative, giving Dems a 4 in 5 chance. But it also shows an even wider range: D+17 to D+61. The Classic model gives Democrats a 7 in 8 chance has a range that runs from D+21 to D+59.

        15 replies 35 retweets 184 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 6 Nov 2018

        The Senate forecast is almost the polar opposite. Republicans are 5 in 6 favorites, per our Deluxe forecast, and 4 in 5 favorites according to our Lite and Classic versions. The 80 percent range of most likely outcomes runs from D's gaining 2 seats, to R's gaining 3-4.pic.twitter.com/wmFtxlVs92

        21 replies 116 retweets 264 likes
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      4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 6 Nov 2018

        The joint probabilities are as follows, per our Deluxe model. D Senate + D House: 18% D Senate + R House: <1% R Senate + D House: 68% R Senate + R House: 14% So still better than a 30% chance that *either* the House or the Senate will result in an upset tonight. Pretty exciting!

        114 replies 564 retweets 1,358 likes
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      5. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Todd Cheney‏ @ToddCheney 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @westcovinajoe @NateSilver538

        37 is average for underwater presidents in midterm elections so almost right on par.

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. Autarkh‏ @Autarkh 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Now we wait. #VoteBlue #BlueWavepic.twitter.com/GT07rG3lfO

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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      2. Joe Biden Wrote the Crime Bill‏ @mjrossano 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        When the republicans retain their house majority, will you resign?

        7 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
      3. Jason Dilg‏ @jasdilg 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @mjrossano

        pic.twitter.com/xqT5NnNytB

        1 reply 0 retweets 26 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. ejruthenberg‏ @ejruthenberg 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        After the disastrous election of 2016 I can't put any faith in polls including yours

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Cameron Barker - The Internet's First vPundit‏ @vPunditCam 6 Nov 2018
        Replying to @ejruthenberg @NateSilver538

        It’s not a poll, 538’s forecasts are a model of how likely it is that the other polls are correct. For instance, Trump still had a 29% chance to win going into 2016. That’s a pretty significant chance

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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