The Lite version of our model, which is based polls only, is slightly more conservative, giving Dems a 4 in 5 chance. But it also shows an even wider range: D+17 to D+61. The Classic model gives Democrats a 7 in 8 chance has a range that runs from D+21 to D+59.
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The Senate forecast is almost the polar opposite. Republicans are 5 in 6 favorites, per our Deluxe forecast, and 4 in 5 favorites according to our Lite and Classic versions. The 80 percent range of most likely outcomes runs from D's gaining 2 seats, to R's gaining 3-4.pic.twitter.com/wmFtxlVs92
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The joint probabilities are as follows, per our Deluxe model. D Senate + D House: 18% D Senate + R House: <1% R Senate + D House: 68% R Senate + R House: 14% So still better than a 30% chance that *either* the House or the Senate will result in an upset tonight. Pretty exciting!
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37 is average for underwater presidents in midterm elections so almost right on par.
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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When the republicans retain their house majority, will you resign?
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After the disastrous election of 2016 I can't put any faith in polls including yours
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It’s not a poll, 538’s forecasts are a model of how likely it is that the other polls are correct. For instance, Trump still had a 29% chance to win going into 2016. That’s a pretty significant chance
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