Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Verified account
@NateSilver538

Tweets

Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

Tweets

  • © 2019 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2018

      Nate Silver Retweeted Nassim Nicholas Taleb

      The forecast has been ~80% the whole time brohttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1059202808208125952 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account @nntaleb
      (cont) which explain why @DineshDSouza is right: you don't change a forecast from 80% to 50% under uncertainty. Second time klueless Nate Silver makes a mistake. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf … pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf
      Show this thread
      148 replies 286 retweets 3,653 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2018

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ …pic.twitter.com/nVGTjFlz2C

      28 replies 98 retweets 1,398 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 Nov 2018

      It's a bit ironic that you used to have interesting things to say and now that you no longer have skin in the game you're just a garden-variety troll

      2:01 PM - 4 Nov 2018
      • 210 Retweets
      • 4,291 Likes
      • Darin T Denver Deal Finder J. Bosco boris mangal averyDK Elijah Rakha-Sheketoff WesternWoman Jason Cohen Oliver Lövgren
      164 replies 210 retweets 4,291 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Richard H Thaler‏ @R_Thaler 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          When you get the rath of NNT (who I block) your confidence should rise. But best to ignore him. Noise.

          12 replies 14 retweets 156 likes
        3. Brad DeLong  🖖🏻‏ @delong 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @R_Thaler @NateSilver538

          He recently said that I "had grown a brain". I am not sure how this should change my Visualization of the Cosmic All...

          2 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
        4. Philip Koop‏ @philkoop 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @delong @R_Thaler @NateSilver538

          Like, in a vat? I hadn't realized that sort of research was in your remit.

          1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
        5. Brad DeLong  🖖🏻‏ @delong 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @philkoop @R_Thaler @NateSilver538

          :-)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Jack Fox‏ @jack_fox711 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          I'm here for sassy Nate

          2 replies 3 retweets 239 likes
        3. Thomas "You Can Call Me Tom"‏ @thomasabarry1 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @jack_fox711 @NateSilver538

          Sassy Nate is best nate. Wait, no, Contrary Nate. Wait, no, awkward-in-ads Nate. Wait no-

          1 reply 0 retweets 39 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Carolyn McClanahan‏Verified account @CarolynMcC 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          That cracks me up. I thought the same thing and loved his work. Taleb's nastiness turned me off and I asked him why he acted so nasty. He blocked me. 😏

          3 replies 0 retweets 46 likes
        3. Padraic Heneghan‏ @heneghanp 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @CarolynMcC @NateSilver538

          Ha! Yes, he blocked me too. For a tough guy who deadlifts and talks about "skin in the game", Taleb is awfully sensitive!

          5 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
        4. Lucas Cavalcanti‏ @Lucas_CR91 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @heneghanp @CarolynMcC @NateSilver538

          I am a big fan but I was blocked too lol He cannot even manage minor disagreements

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. Carolyn McClanahan‏Verified account @CarolynMcC 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Lucas_CR91 @heneghanp @NateSilver538

          We should start a "Blocked by @nntaleb" club.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Marc Feldstein‏ @FeldsteinMarc 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Did you ever have skin in the game, Nate? Like 2016? Hillary was going to win until like 11pm?!

          19 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
        3. Liberal In The House  🌊 🗽 🇺🇸‏ @TurtlesgaloreMR 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @FeldsteinMarc @NateSilver538

          She won by 3 million votes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Colin‏ @Kolyin 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Taleb is focused on marketing the NNT brand, which unfortunately has come to stand for aggression rather than expertise.https://violentmetaphors.com/2015/08/14/good-science-communication-means-never-calling-them-retard-even-if-youre-nassim-taleb/ …

          2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        3. Colin‏ @Kolyin 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Kolyin @NateSilver538

          He's in this to start and "win" fights, rather than have conversations or learn. He's going to naturally identify with the Dinesh D'Souza perspective over the actual experts.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Robert Insall‏ @robinsall 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Kolyin @NateSilver538

          Good article (Taleb has blocked me for pointing out obvious errors in one of his tweets; but then he blocked Simon Singh too; I am happy to be in any group with such company...)

          0 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Hav‏ @havjoul 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          If he’s listening to @DineshDSouza, that’s all one needs to know about him.

          1 reply 1 retweet 43 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. (((David Shor)))‏ @davidshor 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          This paper (Page five to page nineteen) contains legitimately very insightful points about structured finance and statistical modeling but there's no reason to ever read anything else Taleb has ever written https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/071411nassim.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3jnNiYidoUBOnCWWmPZSO5a-TkKLCJrO_l72HUdyATJMgxI3hsXILTcdQ …

          0 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Dennis Yocham‏ @dyocham13 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          What percentage did you have on Hillary Clinton winning in 2016? I'm asking for a friend.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Tweet unavailable
        4. Dennis Yocham‏ @dyocham13 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @coachglove @NateSilver538

          My thoughts exactly. Silver acts as if the House is a done deal. I was pointing out the elephant in the room, which was his prediction for 2016.

          5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Tweete‏ @tintintar 4 Nov 2018
          Replying to @dyocham13 @coachglove @NateSilver538

          He is getting attacked for literally saying the opposite of what you just accused him of saying. My head is spinning.

          0 replies 0 retweets 30 likes
        6. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2019 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info