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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

    Nate Silver Retweeted Katty Kay

    If polls are right, Democrats project to win the popular vote by 8-9 points on Tuesday. That's a lot; bigger than the GOP margins in 1994 and 2010.https://twitter.com/KattyKay_/status/1058544480620630021 …

    Nate Silver added,

    Katty KayVerified account @KattyKay_
    “Democrats should be walking away with the midterms. That they are not is because they have consistently underestimated the president’s political gifts, while missing the deeper threat his presidency represents.” https://nyti.ms/2CUie17 
    7:33 PM - 2 Nov 2018
    • 733 Retweets
    • 3,079 Likes
    • spunjbaf Kevin Eugene Smith juju (((Brad Belmont))) 🥀 😷 ✡️ Paul Scorthorne NeilWatson Matt Isom Thomas Martinez Kait the Great
    170 replies 733 retweets 3,079 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        Because of how voters are distributed (and in the House, gerrymandered) and which Senate seats are up this year, that probably won't be enough for Ds to get it done in the Senate, and the House is far from a sure thing. But that would be a fairly impressive showing.

        35 replies 157 retweets 1,071 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        The reason I say "pretty impressive" is because opposition parties usually do well at the midterms. Democrats are on track for an above-average but not spectacular performance (again, if polls are about right).

        35 replies 68 retweets 571 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        Indeed, a good argument about Trumpism as an electoral strategy is that it's decidedly below-average, but not so below-average as one would have thought, especially given that the House, Senate and Electoral College all reward a party that overperforms among working-class whites.

        31 replies 112 retweets 654 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        Anyway, a lot of hot takes are going to be written based on whether Democrats wind up with 22- or 23+ House seats next week. And if you're trying to forecast the horse race—as I'm trying to do—that's the most interesting thing to keep track of.

        4 replies 43 retweets 394 likes
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      6. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        But if you're a pundit and you want to be at all literate and numerate about evaluating the intrinsic popularity of Trumpism, that's maybe not the best metric. You'd want to look at, well, the **popular vote**. You'd also want to factor e.g. governorships into account.

        20 replies 77 retweets 734 likes
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      7. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 2 Nov 2018

        p.s. Don't mean to imply that any outcome on Tuesday would constitute a repudiation of Trump. But there's a highly plausible world in which, e.g. Ds win the House popular vote by 6-7%, 21 (but not 23!) House seats and a lot of gov races. Be careful with your 🔥 takes on that one.

        49 replies 67 retweets 580 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. Aontaithe‏ @Aontaithe2021 2 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        But gerrymandering

        0 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Paul Lackey‏ @holliemaea 2 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        And with the economy still strong!

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dander Bogaerts‏ @Dander_Bogaerts 2 Nov 2018
        Replying to @holliemaea @NateSilver538

        It was stronger under Obama - one reason why the generic ballot is +8 Dems

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. SGA‏ @SGA_FLA 2 Nov 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        “If polls are right”.pic.twitter.com/CNAilzVyg0

        0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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