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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Very little is clear about the Kavanaugh effect. Trump's approval has gotten better but the generic ballot hasn't for the GOP, and has maybe gotten worse for them among likely voters.
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David M. Drucker
@DavidMDrucker
The WSJ/NBC poll, to me, clarifies there is Kavanaugh effect of sorts, & it has been net positive for Republicans. Did it juice Democrats? Yes. But they didn’t need any more enthusiasm - Rs did, & it could make difference in competitive lean R House seats, never mind Senate.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, the theory that like Dem enthusiasm was already capped out pre-Kavanaugh doesn't make sense. Only 40-45% of the eligible voters typically vote in the midterms. That's quite low! You can never have enough enthusiasm. You're never really near the point of diminishing returns.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
For instance, if GOP voters turned out at a rate that was really high for a midterm, but Democrats turned out at a rate that was on the *low* end for a *presidential year*, you'd have a massive, massive Democratic wave.
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David M. Drucker
@DavidMDrucker
I think in some lean R House seats, where Rs have a natural advantage that Ds have to overcome, it has improved the R position. Feel even more confident about that in Senate. I don’t discount your models but that’s my sense from reporting on the ground + data.
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DC
@balljr
Pundits analysis: When Democrats get angry it helps Republicans; when Republicans get angry it helps Republicans...
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Dave
@WFDave
Perhaps it's more "never Trump" republicans seeing their local republicans buddy up to him and feeling they need to be a part of the party machine again now that it's election time