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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 15 Oct 2018

    Nate Silver Retweeted Nate Silver

    We're now at another point of near-symmetry. There's roughly a: —1 in 5 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House —3 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House —1 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps both chambershttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1047839197959270400 …

    Nate Silver added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    There's some nice symmetry in our forecast right now. Basically we're looking at: 1 in 4 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House 1 in 2 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House 1 in 4 chance that the GOP keeps both chambers. https://53eig.ht/2MlNFag 
    12:52 PM - 15 Oct 2018
    • 295 Retweets
    • 813 Likes
    • 💙LORELL🌊😷🗽🏛️🌐❣️😘 Susanna Hardy inna vlassov Russell Fradin Peter C. Horan Ken Dyar Anti-Racist - Anti-Sexist olgazeta Arun Krishnamurthy Michael Kovacs
    84 replies 295 retweets 813 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jon‏ @jons6111 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        doesn't this assume non-correlation between house and senate results?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Emma‏ @geekethics 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jons6111 @NateSilver538

        No it doesn't, if it did the chance of blue senate red house would be noticeable rather than much less than 1%

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Chris: We are who we protect‏ @EasyNetworks 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Well if there's one thing we know (a la Trump) is that the seemingly impossible is possible... #RememberInNovember and let's take both chambers... we need to return to Congress as a "check" on the Presidency. Clearly, it's not happening today in any meaningful way.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Very weird that Dems' chance of winning the Senate and the House and their chance of just winning the House have both fallen, but their chance of winning either the Senate or the House has risen.

        4 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @JamesSurowiecki

        Their chance of winning just the House has risen...

        2 replies 0 retweets 52 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. maraleia‏ @maraleia 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        I know you are a numbers guy but the fate of our democracy is at stake here, can you stop being so dispassionate especially because the GOP wants to take your rights away as a gay man

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Alex‏ @ahlics 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @maraleia @NateSilver538

        Why should he jeopardise his career and reputation to please you? And why do you think you have a right to tell gay men how to act because of their sexuality?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Unknown  💤‏ @BeardedCaviar 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        for the sake of shits and giggles, what are the chances that the Rs keep the House but the Ds take the Senate

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Robert Goldberg‏ @robjGoldberg 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @BeardedCaviar @NateSilver538

        If you multiply R's 1-in-5 House chances with D's 1-in-5 senate chances, you get 1 in 25

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Carolina Curmudgeon‏ @carolinacurmudg 15 Oct 2018
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        So -- if either 1 or 3 happens, it will be fair when people say that your prediction was wrong? #mostpeopledontunderstandprobabilitiesatall

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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