Nate Silverஉறுதிசெய்யப்பட்ட கணக்கு

This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.pic.twitter.com/4nz3fzGFur

Bucks are still 60/40 to win the series but that was *not* a good result for them. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/ …pic.twitter.com/bFoCpwirC3

Don't take these too seriously. https://53eig.ht/2vmHurJ pic.twitter.com/6X8A3Dtd3x

And now Biden's pulled ahead on our overall endorsement scorecard too.pic.twitter.com/SpER6djQ9B

Here I offer a hypothesis*: Candidates whose support is based on "electability" are prone to decline in the polls. * Hypothesis meaning: I'm not actually sure it's true. But it's an interesting hypothesis. https://53eig.ht/2vlJBfn pic.twitter.com/GJzblMQR8h

It's probably worth noting that while this group, Justice Democrats, calls Biden "out-of-touch" with the "center of energy" in the Democratic Party, only 26 of the 79 candidates it endorsed last year won their primaries, and only 7 of those went on to win the general election.pic.twitter.com/kHPsqgrp35

Biden already has by far the most out-of-state endorsements of any Democrat so far. https://53eig.ht/2EnHjkd pic.twitter.com/83QwCyEfuW

The tricky part is that he's stuck in between two strategies he might use to win the nomination, either as a (1) consensus-builder, or (2) a more factional candidate. Both routes are plausible, though—which I'm not sure you can say for other candidates (e.g. Bernie has only 2).pic.twitter.com/ntgNKA2Yfu

You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.pic.twitter.com/jwSd8Y2m77

Coincidentally $15.32 is the average price of a slice of avocado toast.pic.twitter.com/yaB4x2iR4V

I also think the Sanders campaign's strategy is a bit dubious. If they're really hoping to win at the convention with a ~30% plurality of delegates, their rivalry with the Democratic establishment is going to be a big problem for them.pic.twitter.com/aFYXCpdxVc

Sanders's favorability/unfavorability ratings have varied a lot from poll to poll. But on average, they're in the upper-middle part of the pack, not at the top. Biden's negatives are lower and candidates like Buttigieg and Harris have better ratings adjusted for name recognition.pic.twitter.com/SYO0tJMVPp

Sanders is polling at ~20% nationally with ~100% name recognition. Slightly higher in NH but slightly worse in Iowa. Historically, candidates in a similar position don't have a great track record. (3 for 15 in winning nominations, or 20%).pic.twitter.com/Nbg0bNWw5K

And here's the page for national primary polls. https://53eig.ht/2Xt8tOi pic.twitter.com/476CheAiXG

Here are all the polls we can find in South Carolina, for instance. https://53eig.ht/2DtjwPV pic.twitter.com/NC8e7xtBEt

Also out today, a new New Hampshire poll with much better numbers for Bernie than what we've been seeing in other early-state polls recently. But it also shows Buttigieg surging into a strong 3rd place.pic.twitter.com/SiMi9VSqjn

Early-state Democratic activists have very different views of the candidates than the polls. Quite down on Sanders & Biden, and not really feeling Beto at all. https://53eig.ht/2PkgrX6 pic.twitter.com/1Epslp2AXQ

In fact, Sanders supporters sometimes make arguments like these themselves to claim Bernie will appeal to Trump voters. It's an extremely weird thing to get upset about unless they're deliberately looking to pick a fight with Buttigieg.pic.twitter.com/I2oITRTFD8

At my church for Easter Sunday.pic.twitter.com/KM00Nbucpd

Basically this (which is, you know, from an actual Constitutional scholar, not just me trolling). https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/19/18485862/mueller-report-trump-impeachment-obstruction …pic.twitter.com/11urckqg53