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Pence was an extraordinarily conventional VP choice, maybe the most boring, conventional choice Trump made all campaign, so if you're reading too much into it you're probably seeing patterns when there aren't any.https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1040722106156236800 …
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Nate Silver Retweeted
So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past.
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I should probably write this up but IIRC if you compare to the long term trend, it comes out that Trump's unpopularity cost him ~6 points vs. the average candidate but Clinton's cost hers ~4. So that nets out her winning the popular vote by 2 (but losing the Electoral College).https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1040700651523776512 …
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Candidates have been getting more unpopular over time but Clinton and Trump were especially unpopular even relative to that trend.https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1040670790075777024 …
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Nate Silver RetweetedThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Nate Silver Retweeted
Polls this week show that the Mueller investigation is gaining more support all the while Trump is losing support.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-down-muellers-is-up-is-there-a-connection/ …
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You can say polling in party primaries is awful (true). But it's less terrible when the candidates have high name recognition, when it's only a 2-way race instead of multiway, and when the polling stays the same for months. And even when it's terrible, usually not 40 points off.
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Hot take: The media should have paid more attention to polls in the NYGOV race and less attention to Cynthia Nixon's campaign. Other races, including others with progressive challengers, were a lot more deserving of that bandwidth.
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I'm not sure if this is a joke but he's still a clear favorite in his district and you have to be pretty berserk to suggest otherwise. https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1040423169658703872 …
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Nate Silver Retweeted
Polls close in New York tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. Here's what you need to know:https://53eig.ht/2x0QkMm
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Nate Silver Retweeted
We've had several BIG hurricanes in the past few years. We still aren't ready when they hit.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-arent-ready-for-hurricanes-like-florence/ …
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Nate Silver Retweeted
Today's Election Update is a deep dive into the Romney-Clinton districts. All 13 could flip to Democrats:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-chances-in-the-13-romney-clinton-districts/ …
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(I think I've said this like 6 million times before, but the decline of the incumbency advantage is both very important and weirdly overlooked. It's a big part of why Democrats could gain 30, 40, 50 seats this year despite districts being much more polarized than they once were.)
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In fact, the incumbency advantage is much smaller than it once was, so it wouldn't surprise me to start seeing House control flip back and forth between the parties more often, especially if redistricting produces a relatively neutral map starting in 2022.
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Good news (?) for election geeks is that it seems pretty likely that both the House and Senate will be "in play" again in 2020 regardless of what happens this year.https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1040278553470935040 …
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I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 …
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While publicly-released internal polls need to be taken with heavy dose of salt, we've definitely seen the ambition level from Democrats increase in the past couple weeks, releasing polls showing them tied/ahead in pretty tough districts or competitive in *very* tough ones.https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1039997854046199808 …
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The thing is, Democrats have so much exposure that they're really playing whack-a-mole in the Senate. Fox came out with relatively good numbers for them in Missouri and Arizona. But! They have Heitkamp down in ND and Donnelly a tick behind in Indiana.
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This is pretty rough poll for Heitkamp in North Dakota, and since there have been very few public polls in the state, our model's going to weight it heavily.https://fxn.ws/2NG76ur
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