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With that said, this is guesswork. We count about 16 firm "no's" right now with 22 needed to kill the bill.http://53eig.ht/2m423ap
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3 of 22 Republicans defected, a rate that would extrapolate to 32 GOP defections in the full House (killing the health care bill).https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/842382642305761282 …
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For context, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House in 2010 and Obamacare played a fairly clear role in that.http://53eig.ht/2n1Lqvg
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When Obamacare passed in March 2010, it polled at 40% favor / 49% oppose (per RCP). That's bad, but GOP bill is less popular still.
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Fox News poll -- first live caller poll on the subject -- has awful numbers for GOP health care bill. 34% favor // 54% oppose.https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/842135823340384256 …
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Trump's approval improved by a point or two after his speech to Congress, but he seems to have reverted to the mean. http://53eig.ht/2lYTN9X pic.twitter.com/irTZV44rde
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Roses are red Oceans are blue These humpback whales Are plotting a couphttps://twitter.com/RachelFeltman/status/842055549764161536 …
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By comparison markets gave Trump only a 15% chance when he was down only 3-4 points. And Brexit only a 20% chance when it was TIED in polls.
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Markets have Le Pen with a ~25% chance of winning even though she's down by 20(!) points. They're pricing in a massive "Shy Le Pen" vote.https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/842109298478051330 …
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Lately we've had a lot of outcomes like these where markets/elites tried to outguess the polls and guessed in the in the wrong direction.pic.twitter.com/sHquyzgNcv
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A good rule of thumb: Polls can be off, but it's really hard to predict the *direction* in which they'll be off.http://53eig.ht/2mK9dgS
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Looks like polls will wind up *overestimating* right-wing (PVV) support in the Netherlands, just as they did in Austria a few months ago.https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/842103820616400914 …
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From reading Twitter you'd think Rachel Maddow was the first journalist in history to overhype a minor scoop.
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Nate Silver Retweeted
I wrote this on Joe Manchin. Bottom line: Democrats have to decide whether they want to be a big tent party or not.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/ …
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It's not that relevant whether Trump intends for something to be a distraction. What matters is whether people are distracted by it.
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Nate Silver Retweeted
Odd seeing journalists for the big papers & TV networks talk about what’s “the focus” of the news as if they are passive bystanders.
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Things I learned today: Nobody has ever had sex in space -- or so NASA claims.http://53eig.ht/2mnZ5bU
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Nate Silver Retweeted
In this week's pod: The
#AHCA installment of "will it or won't it become a law?" Also, I take a shot at hosting
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-health-of-the-gops-health-care-bill/ … -
We have NCAA women's tourney projections too and—you're not going to believe this—but UConn is favored.http://53eig.ht/2n3dqPv
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