Nate SilverOvjeren akaunt

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
Vrijeme pridruživanja: kolovoz 2008.

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  1. retweet for the information, favorite for the pun

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  4. The 15% rule is quite good as it's basically a form of ranked choice voting

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  5. No, seriously. Here are Bernie's best scenarios, for instance.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
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  8. 😇This is almost all from that one satellite caucus in Florida and you should pay almost zero attention to it. 😈 WhAt If KLoMeNtUm iS ReAL?

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  9. I'm already regretting tweeting about satellite caucuses and will cut it out because I have a bunch of other work to do. Sort of fun though.

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  10. This seems not great for Biden? Nor for Bernie, but you wouldn't expect him to do well here and he seems to be doing good in the other satellite caucuses.

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  11. As people underestimate polling error in Iowa they underestimate the chances for some of the underdogs but they *also* underestimate the chances for a landslide win. eg. this PredictIt market showing only a 30% chance of a margin >7% (which isn't even that big) is probably off.

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  12. And.... it's 3PM so these are our final numbers for Iowa. Remember to criticize us if someone other than Sanders wins since we had Sanders as the most likely winner, and also to criticize us if Sanders wins since we had him at <50%.

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  13. We are also issuing district-by-district delegate forecasts in Iowa (as we are in all states), but they're somewhat boring as Iowa is relatively homogenous. Still, this from is worth your time on Iowa's political geography:

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati

    It’s possible there will be some variation in the results from one district to another—and understanding Iowa’s political geography will be important if you plan to follow the results tonight in real time. has more:

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  15. Note that we're forecasting the popular vote after realignment and not *state delegate equivalents*. State delegate equivalents may help the moderates more than Sanders and Warren. Here's more about what that all means:

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  16. Sanders has emerged with a slightly clearer lead over Biden with the final few polls (although technically we're still holding the model open until 3pm). Still think people are underestimating the uncertainty a bit and neither a Buttigieg or Warren win would be at all shocking.

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  17. Iowa caucus winning chances: Sanders: 2 in 5 (41%) Biden: 1 in 3 (32%) Buttigieg: 1 in 7 (14%) Warren: 1 in 10 (10%) Klobuchar: 1 in 40 (2%)

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  18. Taken in combination these things would tend to considerably increase the likelihood of a contested convention.

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  19. What that would mean is some combination of: * Candidates less willing to drop out than usual * Smaller bounces from IA/NH * But perhaps larger bounces from NV/SC/beyond * Delayed reactions from party elites to things (e.g. Bernie's surge) that should have been evident earlier

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  20. I wonder whether the relative lack of news coverage/buildup to the Iowa caucuses because of all the competing news stories could wind up sort of pushing back the timetable for the primaries.

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