Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008
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  1. 1 hour ago

    With that said, this is guesswork. We count about 16 firm "no's" right now with 22 needed to kill the bill.

    13 replies 74 retweets 141 likes
  2. 1 hour ago

    3 of 22 Republicans defected, a rate that would extrapolate to 32 GOP defections in the full House (killing the health care bill).

    House Budget Cmte votes 19-17 to approve the Republican health care bill. GOP reps Brat, Palmer and Sanford vote no.
    31 replies 191 retweets 376 likes
  3. 13 hours ago

    For context, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House in 2010 and Obamacare played a fairly clear role in that.

    19 replies 132 retweets 346 likes
  4. 13 hours ago

    When Obamacare passed in March 2010, it polled at 40% favor / 49% oppose (per RCP). That's bad, but GOP bill is less popular still.

    25 replies 359 retweets 455 likes
  5. 14 hours ago

    Fox News poll -- first live caller poll on the subject -- has awful numbers for GOP health care bill. 34% favor // 54% oppose.

    FOX NEWS POLL: 34 percent of voters favor GOP health care plan via
    99 replies 1,351 retweets 1,949 likes
  6. 18 hours ago

    Trump's approval improved by a point or two after his speech to Congress, but he seems to have reverted to the mean.

    38 replies 146 retweets 245 likes
  7. 19 hours ago

    Roses are red Oceans are blue These humpback whales Are plotting a coup

    Humpback whales are organizing in huge numbers, and no one knows why
    150 replies 2,062 retweets 5,005 likes
  8. 19 hours ago

    By comparison markets gave Trump only a 15% chance when he was down only 3-4 points. And Brexit only a 20% chance when it was TIED in polls.

    35 replies 72 retweets 195 likes
  9. 19 hours ago

    Markets have Le Pen with a ~25% chance of winning even though she's down by 20(!) points. They're pricing in a massive "Shy Le Pen" vote.

    Note also that in France, Le Pen is consistently losing by 20 points in a second round.
    51 replies 211 retweets 366 likes
  10. 20 hours ago

    Lately we've had a lot of outcomes like these where markets/elites tried to outguess the polls and guessed in the in the wrong direction.

    14 replies 47 retweets 124 likes
  11. 20 hours ago

    A good rule of thumb: Polls can be off, but it's really hard to predict the *direction* in which they'll be off.

    32 replies 69 retweets 251 likes
  12. 20 hours ago

    Looks like polls will wind up *overestimating* right-wing (PVV) support in the Netherlands, just as they did in Austria a few months ago.

    🇳🇱 | / EXIT POLL - seats VVD 31 PVV 19 CDA 19 D66 19 GL 16 SP 14 PvdA 9
    85 replies 465 retweets 842 likes
  13. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    hip hop and trump:

    11 replies 93 retweets 135 likes
  14. 23 hours ago

    From reading Twitter you'd think Rachel Maddow was the first journalist in history to overhype a minor scoop.

    297 replies 396 retweets 2,735 likes
  15. Retweeted
    Mar 15

    I wrote this on Joe Manchin. Bottom line: Democrats have to decide whether they want to be a big tent party or not.

    104 replies 189 retweets 428 likes
  16. Mar 14

    It's not that relevant whether Trump intends for something to be a distraction. What matters is whether people are distracted by it.

    188 replies 2,745 retweets 7,010 likes
  17. Retweeted
    Mar 14

    Odd seeing journalists for the big papers & TV networks talk about what’s “the focus” of the news as if they are passive bystanders.

    28 replies 408 retweets 1,384 likes
  18. Mar 14

    Things I learned today: Nobody has ever had sex in space -- or so NASA claims.

    54 replies 171 retweets 383 likes
  19. Retweeted
    Mar 13

    In this week's pod: The installment of "will it or won't it become a law?" Also, I take a shot at hosting 😃🎙️

    5 replies 14 retweets 51 likes
  20. Mar 13

    We have NCAA women's tourney projections too and—you're not going to believe this—but UConn is favored.

    21 replies 33 retweets 153 likes

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