Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008
1,184 Photos and videos Photos and videos

Tweets

You blocked @NateSilver538

Are you sure you want to view these Tweets? Viewing Tweets won't unblock @NateSilver538

  1. 8 hours ago

    Pence was an extraordinarily conventional VP choice, maybe the most boring, conventional choice Trump made all campaign, so if you're reading too much into it you're probably seeing patterns when there aren't any.

    Mike Pence has to be shaking in his boots right now. Paul Manafort chose Mike Pence as Trump's VP for a reason, and now Robert Mueller is about to find out exactly why. I'm willing to bet it wasn't because Manafort thought it was cute that Mike Pence calls his own wife "mother"
    281 replies 146 retweets 1,536 likes
    Undo
  2. Retweeted
    14 hours ago

    So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past.

    12,653 replies 140,453 retweets 346,607 likes
    Undo
  3. 12 hours ago

    I should probably write this up but IIRC if you compare to the long term trend, it comes out that Trump's unpopularity cost him ~6 points vs. the average candidate but Clinton's cost hers ~4. So that nets out her winning the popular vote by 2 (but losing the Electoral College).

    Candidates have been getting more unpopular over time but Clinton and Trump were especially unpopular even relative to that trend.
    16 replies 31 retweets 199 likes
    Undo
  4. 13 hours ago

    Candidates have been getting more unpopular over time but Clinton and Trump were especially unpopular even relative to that trend.

    This actually seems like a common view, but what are the examples in history where both candidates were unpopular on Election Day besides 2016 (especially when new on the scene)
    19 replies 21 retweets 238 likes
    Undo
  5. Retweeted
    13 hours ago

    🚨 EMERGENCY MANAFORT PODCAST 🚨

    9 replies 16 retweets 133 likes
    Undo
  6. Retweeted
    Sep 13

    (the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez district) Cuomo - 37,576 (67.8%) Nixon - 17,883 (32.2%) 10-15% outstanding in some of the Bronx precincts there, but comparable to 2014, when Cuomo won it 73/24.

    63 replies 244 retweets 622 likes
    Undo
  7. Retweeted
    19 hours ago

    Polls this week show that the Mueller investigation is gaining more support all the while Trump is losing support.

    24 replies 162 retweets 545 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  8. 20 hours ago

    You can say polling in party primaries is awful (true). But it's less terrible when the candidates have high name recognition, when it's only a 2-way race instead of multiway, and when the polling stays the same for months. And even when it's terrible, usually not 40 points off.

    10 replies 67 retweets 616 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  9. 20 hours ago

    Hot take: The media should have paid more attention to polls in the NYGOV race and less attention to Cynthia Nixon's campaign. Other races, including others with progressive challengers, were a lot more deserving of that bandwidth.

    151 replies 490 retweets 3,617 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  10. Sep 13

    I'm not sure if this is a joke but he's still a clear favorite in his district and you have to be pretty berserk to suggest otherwise.

    This Tweet is unavailable.
    36 replies 97 retweets 781 likes
    Undo
  11. Retweeted
    Sep 13

    Polls close in New York tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. Here's what you need to know:

    3 replies 27 retweets 55 likes
    Undo
  12. Retweeted
    Sep 13

    We've had several BIG hurricanes in the past few years. We still aren't ready when they hit.

    4 replies 44 retweets 93 likes
    Undo
  13. Retweeted
    Sep 13

    Today's Election Update is a deep dive into the Romney-Clinton districts. All 13 could flip to Democrats:

    2 replies 25 retweets 87 likes
    Undo
  14. Sep 13

    (I think I've said this like 6 million times before, but the decline of the incumbency advantage is both very important and weirdly overlooked. It's a big part of why Democrats could gain 30, 40, 50 seats this year despite districts being much more polarized than they once were.)

    18 replies 107 retweets 562 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  15. Sep 13

    In fact, the incumbency advantage is much smaller than it once was, so it wouldn't surprise me to start seeing House control flip back and forth between the parties more often, especially if redistricting produces a relatively neutral map starting in 2022.

    22 replies 60 retweets 391 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  16. Sep 13

    Good news (?) for election geeks is that it seems pretty likely that both the House and Senate will be "in play" again in 2020 regardless of what happens this year.

    In 2020 there is a seat that probably leans their way absent another meltdown: Alabama. But there are 4-5 problematic R seats: AZ, CO, NC, ME, and IA, with maybe GA or SC, depending. If Trump is losing, losing 3-4 net seats is pretty realistic. 2/
    Show this thread
    20 replies 116 retweets 746 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  17. Sep 13

    I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.

    3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...
    1,097 replies 18,235 retweets 79,652 likes
    Undo
  18. Sep 12

    While publicly-released internal polls need to be taken with heavy dose of salt, we've definitely seen the ambition level from Democrats increase in the past couple weeks, releasing polls showing them tied/ahead in pretty tough districts or competitive in *very* tough ones.

    An under-the-radar race: new GQRR poll for Kristen Carlson (D)'s campaign shows her leading Ross Spano (R) 48%-47% for open in outer Tampa burbs. has had in Lean R for last few months.
    18 replies 87 retweets 527 likes
    Undo
  19. Sep 12

    The thing is, Democrats have so much exposure that they're really playing whack-a-mole in the Senate. Fox came out with relatively good numbers for them in Missouri and Arizona. But! They have Heitkamp down in ND and Donnelly a tick behind in Indiana.

    17 replies 48 retweets 201 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo
  20. Sep 12

    This is pretty rough poll for Heitkamp in North Dakota, and since there have been very few public polls in the state, our model's going to weight it heavily.

    38 replies 89 retweets 202 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
    Undo

@NateSilver538 hasn't Tweeted yet.

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

    You may also like

    ·