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আপনি @NateSilver538-কে ব্লক করেছেন

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  1. ২ ঘন্টা আগে

    I don't like the trend of treating Trump's approval among GOP voters as the headline and his overall approval number as the subheadline. Both are important, but the overall number is more important. His approval among independents is also important, and rarely gets mentioned.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  2. ১৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    One of the essential strategies for triaging your news diet in the Trump Era is not to pay much attention to things that the White House is merely "considering". Some of them will happen but most won't, and they're often distractions from things that are actually *happening*.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  3. ১৭ ঘন্টা আগে

    3. But more often than you might think, the missing/miscoded/"outlier" cases indicate a larger, more systematic problem with your code or with your data. My advice is to do due diligence on those cases BEFORE moving on to next steps, because errors tend to compound.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  4. ১৭ ঘন্টা আগে

    2. Say you have a sample size of 5,000 cases, and of those cases, a dozen or so are missing or look as though they're miscoded. You might think, "That's not bad. I'll just throw those cases out and I'll be fine". And you probably will be fine if that's all there is to it.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  5. ১৭ ঘন্টা আগে

    1. Going through some old data/code I last worked on 8 years ago. One thing I've learned since then is that when combining different datasets or doing other complicated data processing, it pays to be really anal-retentive about missing data or data that doesn't pass sanity checks

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  6. ১৯ ঘন্টা আগে

    Toronto projects for 56 wins after the Kawhi trade, as compared to 53 wins pre-trade. If Kawhi is fully healthy, though, the projection shoots up to 61 wins.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  7. পুনঃ টুইট করেছেন
    ২২ ঘন্টা আগে

    Brett Kavanaugh is polling like Robert Bork and Harriet Miers.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  8. ২২ ঘন্টা আগে

    Nathaniel Rakich with the 🔥 take that Republicans would have been better off in the long-term if Clinton had won.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  9. ২৩ ঘন্টা আগে

    If Toronto was roughly indifferent toward keeping DeRozan, the trade becomes Poetel and a heavily-protected 1st round pick for Danny Green and an X% chance/lottery ticket that the Kawhi situation works out well long-term for the Raps. Probably a good trade as long as X is >=25%.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  10. ২৩ ঘন্টা আগে

    I should add: DeRozan's a guy where the advanced stats, especially RPM, value him way less than traditional ones. And very interesting to see how Popovich will use his skill set. Still, would you rather have DeRozan or $29m in cap space? Given next year's FA market, it's close.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  11. ২৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    Per our CARMELO projections, DeMar DeRozan's next 3 seasons are worth the equivalent of $69 million in cap space, and he'll be paid $83 million. So, not a lot of excess value there.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  12. পুনঃ টুইট করেছেন
    ১৮ জুলাই

    Would Republicans be better off if Clinton were president?

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  13. পুনঃ টুইট করেছেন
    ১৮ জুলাই
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  14. ১৮ জুলাই

    The geography of the media bubble doesn't always work how you'd think. Two politicians who are way more popular than you'd infer from media coverage are New York City mayor Bill de Blasio and New York governor Andrew Cuomo.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  15. ১৮ জুলাই

    It wasn't even like he was asked about this case specifically. Asked an open-ended question about a *single* case that he thought should be overturned, Kavanaugh named the decision that upheld the constitutionality of the independent counsel.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  16. ১৮ জুলাই

    Two things can be true: 1) The power/energy in the Democratic Party is moving leftward. 2) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's victory was mostly because she was a great candidate, running in the right district at the right time, and probably had relatively little to do with her leftness.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  17. ১৮ জুলাই

    Polls of gubernatorial primaries are going to be extremely error-prone. But, a poll can be extremely error-prone, and candidate still won't lose (and usually won't come close to it) with a 36-point lead.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  18. ১৮ জুলাই

    Cuomo also leads 61-21 in New York City, per this poll. Nixon's strongest region is actually Upstate, where she trails 52-30.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  19. ১৭ জুলাই

    What if—and hear me out because this will sound CRAZY—instead of interviewing a few voters at a time in a bar in Pennsylvania, we interviewed HUNDREDS of voters, chosen at random from all around the country. Furthermore, we'd ask them all the same questions to minimize bias.

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  20. ১৭ জুলাই

    Kavanaugh's numbers in this poll (+4) are the worst of any SCOTUS nominee that Gallup has tested. By comparison, Gorsuch was a +13. Prior to Kavanaugh, the least popular nominees per Gallup were Bork (+6) and Miers (+8).

    পূর্বাবস্থায়

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