Someone should write about how often the baseball blogosphere disagrees with the markets, and what that says about "saber society."
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@NateMeyvis what do you think it says? FWIW: 1. I’m in business of selling forecasts different from market 2. Perez has looked v. good to me
@amber34owl (4/3) I don't doubt you beat markets, but PECOTA showing a one-game (major sport) market's odds to be ~23% wrong would be wild.
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@NateMeyvis PECOTA odds in particular worry me bc they fluctuate wildly day-to-day even in July. Analytically, that’s extremely hard to buy -
@amber34owl Yes. And I remember thinking that their Playoff Odds have been pretty crazy, at least in past years.
End of conversation
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