Prediction is cheap: "No one will remember if you’re wrong, and whenever you turn out to be right you can crow about it on Twitter." "For every projection you make—fruitless to ask you to forswear the projective temptation altogether—make a promise."https://hedgehogreview.com/blog/thr/posts/against-projection-for-promise …
Prediction is cheap; yay! If you're right, other people are unlikely to care, and you don't need to either. If you're wrong, you can examine your mistake, often to your great benefit. The promise is to be intellectually rigorous about it.