Nate Meyvis

Okay lemme see if I can nerd out appropriately. this is like calculating expected value in poker right? So if I think about it that way... You’ve given me $80k. I can keep it OR I can draw a ticket. 1 ticket is worth $420k, one ticket is worth $20k, one ticket costs $80k...https://twitter.com/HLoc_Da_Gawd/status/1260586341726859266 …

Since my option is keeping $80k or taking a ticket worth $118,600, then you should “call,” or take the ticket, as it’s worth just a little more than holding onto the cash.

The tough part about this is that it’s hard to find comfort in the fact that you made the right long term financial decision if you take the ticket and it goes south lol. The best poker players in the world though DO find comfort in this. Which is so interesting.

The best poker players in the world have trained their minds to think in terms of EV. Thus they get satisfaction making a +EV play even if it doesn’t work out (pulling a losing ticket), because they know that over the long run they will make money.

If you play with the numbers of this scenario a little bit, you’ll see how the change in variables dictate a different strategy. Say I can keep $80k, or I can draw a ticket. One is for $500k, one is for $100k, one costs me $200k...(try to calculate the EV on your own)

So under these new numbers, the EV would be: 420,000 x 0.33 + 20,000 x 0.33 - 200,000 x 0.33 = 138,600 + 6,600 - 66,000 = $79,200. That’s how much a ticket is worth. Since my option is keep $80k or draw, taking the ticket would be a sliiiiiiiightly -EV play. I should “fold”.