@thinkingpoker @NateMeyvis when does the open-ended x-raise semi-bluff on turn stop working? (Re ep4 of weekend warrior, Nate had 55)
I tried a similar play w 99 on xJT8 and got beat by villain w/ JT. Was that a mistake bc board hit more of her range, or was I just unlucky?
A good question. There are no stakes at which it always works. I think there are a lot of situations where a turn k/r says "I can beat one pair" and you can turn your opponent's whole range into bluffcatchers (or worse). Whether they'll fold those is a different question. [1/N]
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When the board is draw-heavy, as in your example, it can be very hard to say as firmly that one pair is no good--just because it can be easy to put you on a semibluff or for you to be putting him on one. Which is not to say that you shouldn't ever bluff in those spots. [2/N]
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Just that it's a different situation. Finally, if you ran into a hand better than you were trying to make fold, it's often best to trust yourself and say "OK, that wasn't my target." And even if you get called by the bluff target, it can be right to shrug and move on. [3/N]
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