El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. An #ElNino Advisory is now in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
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La Niña has ended and #ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023. This is the final #LaNina Advisory for this event. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
It's here! Today declared that #ElNino conditions are now present. Read more at: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
La Niña is here, with a #LaNina Advisory now in effect. The observed La Niña conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
La Niña Watch issued with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Today at CPC we are launching a new look and feel to some of our temperature and precipitation maps to better communicate upcoming climate outlooks across the U.S. Read more at: weather.gov/news/211409-te
Increased Potential for a Major Pattern Change Across the Eastern U.S., with Colder than Normal Conditions Continuing across the Western U.S.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messag
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Today CPC salutes Dave Miskus on his retirement after 41 years of federal service. Dave's come a long way since starting as the "new co-op" student during Summer 1980 at CPC. We will miss your boundless energy, humor, and knowledge but wish you all the best in retirement!
Hot, summertime conditions expand over the Lower 48 beginning the middle of next week. Many locations within the Midwest may reach their hottest temperatures of the year thus far.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%. A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Chances are increasing for a cool-down for many areas east of the Rockies during late September and early October, with our Week-2 outlook favoring below-normal temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern US. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
The second half of February looks likely to be bad news for #snow-lovers in the East, with high confidence for a warm pattern emerging. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
It's here! #LaNina conditions are observed, and have a 65-75% chance of continuing through the upcoming Winter. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Another Winter Storm Expected to Impact California March 21-23 with Heavy Rain, Snow, Winds, and Potential Flooding
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messag
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The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Odds tilt strongly towards colder than normal conditions for most areas east of the Rockies during early to mid-April in our 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks valid for April 6th-10th and 8th-14th, respectively. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Here's our final look at the March 2021 forecast. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
#ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
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High confidence exists for the chances of above-normal temperatures during mid- to late-March stretching southward from the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A high likelihood of below-normal temperatures exists for most areas east of the Rockies in our latest 6-10 day outlook (11/13-11/17), but cold odds moderate by the 8-14 day period (11/15-11/21) as increased chances of above-normal temperatures shift east cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Weak #ElNino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Our extended range outlook valid during May 9th through 15th tilts toward colder and wetter conditions relative to normal across much of the country. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Our final outlook for the month of April sees relatively warmer and wetter than normal conditions favored across much of the country. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
#LaNina has ended, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Best chances for a colder than normal December-February period exist over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and southeastern Alaska. Above-normal precipitation chances are elevated for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northern Tier of the country. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A La Nina watch has been issued, with a 55-60% chance of #LaNina during Northern Hemisphere fall & winter 2017-18. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Don't put away that winter coat just yet if you live east of the Rockies, as chances for cooler than normal temperatures are anticipated for most areas between April 14th through 20th. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23. A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
ICYMI - Our latest seasonal forecast for July-September favors a continuation of cooler and wetter than normal conditions over parts of the central CONUS - long term trends, weak #ElNiño, and soil moisture, are the major players in the outlook. #ClimateSmart
The second half October is likely to favor warmer and drier than normal conditions for much of the country. Best chances for relatively wet conditions are for the Pacific Northwest, South Florida, and the Alaska Panhandle. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
High confidence exists for a tropical cyclone to form over the western Gulf of Mexico between June 16th and 22nd. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023. A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Things look quiet the next few days in the tropical Atlantic before activity picks up in early October. High confidence exists for a tropical cyclone developing over the Western Caribbean 9/30-10/6, with moderate confidence for another one off of Africa. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
A relatively warm and wet end to January and start to February is favored across most of the lower-48 states. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
We're monitoring the #MJO as it is forecast to enter the Pacific next week. Pacific MJO events can influence North American weather substantially, and would support a wet pattern in ~3 weeks for CA (seen in CFS model output) plus increasing cold air outbreak potential in the East
Late Jan through Feb 1 see increased chances for above-normal temperatures over the Central U.S., with slight tilts toward cooler than normal temperatures for the West and East Coast. Best chances for below-normal temperatures are confined to Alaska. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclones to form over both the Western Caribbean and East Pacific during June 9th through 15th. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Excessive heat expands into the Midwest beginning the middle of next week, with many locations reaching their hottest temperatures of the year thus far. Dangerous heat looks to continue in the Southwest.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
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Our Week-2 and Weeks 3&4 outlooks anticipate a pattern change as we head into late Feb/early March, with increased chances for below-normal temperatures sliding east of the Rockies while drier than normal odds increase across much of the lower-48 states. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Here's our final perspective on January 2021. Best wishes for a happy 2021 from all of us at the Climate Prediction Center! cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Today's Week-2 outlook for April 3rd through 9th does not favor increased chances of below-normal temperatures anywhere in the U.S. This could mean the effective end to winter across the lower-48 states, with limited chances of a hard freeze moving forward cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
We continue to monitor the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone formation chances during the next two weeks. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Atlantic tropical cyclone formation chances look to be focused over the Western Caribbean during the next two weeks. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Odds are increased for below-normal temperatures across most areas east of the Rockies during the second half of January, tied to tropical teleconnection responses and a building 500-hPa ridge forecast over northwestern North America. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
High confidence continues for below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies during Mid-November. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Bitterly Cold Temperatures Likely to Impact Much of the Lower 48 States Heading into the Holiday Season
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messag
Our initial outlook for April anticipates increased chances of wetter than normal weather across much of the Great Plains and Southeast, while odds tilt drier for the Pacific Northwest. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
The Caribbean continues to remain active for late season tropical cyclone activity. Another tropical cyclone may form during Nov 18-24 behind #TD31, which is currently over the Central Caribbean. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Winter-lovers rejoice, as much of the lower-48 states have substantial increases in the odds for below-normal temperature during February 20-26th. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across most areas. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
#ElNino watch issued this morning. El Niño forecast to develop by winter!
Despite the warm winter for most parts of the Lower-48, winter does not appear to be going down without a fight! Below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the country in today's Week-2 outlook as we look to close out February and begin March. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
There is an increased chance of tropical cyclone formation near the Southeast U.S. late next week. Updated GTH outlook: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Above-normal precipitation is favored across southern California by today's 8-14 day outlook (valid November 20th-26th). While this precipitation is not anticipated to be heavy, it may help limit subsequent #fire risks and slow any #drought deterioration. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
We anticipate a high risk for much below-normal temperatures October 2nd and 3rd across for an area focused on the Central and Southern Appalachians. Widespread early season #frost and #freeze potential exists across the eastern U.S. #agwx cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022). A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
A pattern change appears in store across parts of the central and western states during January 19-25. Above-normal temperatures observed over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies during the last 30 days appear likely to shift toward a cooler pattern. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Why consult a groundhog when our final February outlooks are available? The best shot for below-normal temperatures during the month looks to be in the Northern Rockies and across Southeast Alaska. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
December is forecast to be warmer than normal for the West and Alaska, with colder then normal temperatures likely to the east of the Great Plains. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter. A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
We anticipate increased chances of warm and dry conditions throughout early to mid-April across much of the Lower 48 states. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Warmer and drier than normal conditions are favored to continue across the western U.S. during the second half of February and into early March by today's Week 3-4 outlook. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A #LaNina watch has been issued. #ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through boreal summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Confidence is increasing for a long duration heat wave across the Southwest and western Texas through at least July 17th
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
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Wet conditions appear likely for much of the Corn Belt and Great Lakes during March 9th through 13th. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Confidence is high for a warmer than usual May through July across nearly all of the U.S. Below-normal rains are favored for the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Rockies and Plains. Odds for a wet 3 months increase for the Great Lakes and East Coast. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Odds are increased for above-normal temperatures across nearly the entirety of the U.S. during September 19th through 25th. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Excessive heat warnings, excessive heat watches, and heat advisories are currently widespread across the Central and Eastern U.S., but relief is in sight with below-normal temperatures favored here during the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A high risk for heavy precipitation is forecast on October 20th through 22nd across much of Northern California for rainfall that could raise burn scar flooding concerns, but also help replenish reservoir levels. Our Week-2 hazards outlook has the latest: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
In November we favor above-normal temperatures for nearly the entire US. Odds increase for above-normal precipitation across the southern US and East Coast, while chances rise for below-normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Plains cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Early March sees increased chances for above-normal temperatures for points east of the Rockies, while much of the West and Alaska see odds tilt toward cooler than usual conditions. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall. A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Today's Weeks 3-4 outlook runs from late November through early December, and sees increased chances for relatively warm and dry conditions across much of the nation. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Late December and early January could feature a pattern favorable for Nor'easter development along the East Coast. #snow cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Here's our final forecast for the month of February, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, La Nina, and Arctic Oscillation helping tilt odds toward below-normal temperatures for much of the country. Early to mid-month are likely the best chances for cold. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
#ElNino has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May). A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
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Chances for both below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall are increased for much of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley throughout the month of June. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Looking quiet for tropical cyclone chances in the Atlantic over the next week, but two areas are worth monitoring for development during late September and early October. One or more systems could also form over the East Pacific during Week-2. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Wishing a happy 150th anniversary to the Meteorological Service of Canada! NCEP’s and look forward to many more years of working together on our joint North American Ensemble Forecast System. Learn more at Canada.ca/MSC150years
#ECCC50 #MSC150
Here's our final call for the October temperature and precipitation outlooks. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Updated Jan 5, 2023: Hazardous Winds, Snow, and Rain Forecast to Continue over the West Coast, Possibly Exacerbating Flooding Risk
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messag
A moderate risk exists for a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic through 9/1. Things pick up again between the 2nd-8th, with two areas targeted for formation, one high and one moderate risk. The East Pacific looks to be quiet during both periods. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci
Our initial outlook for December sees increased chances for a warmer than usual month across much of the country, while precipitation odds tilt dry over much of the southern U.S. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A high risk of much below-normal temperatures exists for much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee and Ohio Valleys during Feb 16-19. Daily record low temperatures could occur throughout much of the highlighted area. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Another round next week of heavy rain, heavy snow, and high winds is likely along the West Coast with possible flooding over parts of California and Washington State. Heavy rain is possible over the Southeast.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
A transition from #ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. An #ElNino Watch remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
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There is an approximately 60% chance of #ElNino in the Northern Hemisphere during Fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to around 70% during Winter 2018-19. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Our forecast confidence doen't get much higher than our current 6-10 day outlook, as a very amplified pattern has much of the West looking cold, Alaska and the East looking warm, and wet conditions favored across most of the lower-48. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
#ElNino is expected to form and continue through boreal Spring 2019 (~65% chance). However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
We anticipate a high risk of much below-normal temperatures across much of the Central U.S. on the 12th of March. Daily record low temperatures are possible throughout the highlighted region. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late boreal summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through boreal fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance). A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
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The #LaNina advisory has been dropped by CPC/ forecasters, with neutral #ENSO conditions observed. ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of #ElNino nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy
Chances are increased for above-normal temperatures across much of the country during the coming #spring.
A forecast full-latitude trough near the West Coast results in an elevated risk for periods of severe weather across parts of the central and southern Great Plains east to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley throughout March 13-19. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
Chances are increased for a warm end to March across much of the country, with probabilities favoring below-normal temperatures confined to portions of the Rockies, High Plains, and Alaska. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi
