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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

      (THREAD) Iran Deal opponents keep making these same 3 bad arguments. Look for them in Trump's speech announcing American withdrawal, and see if he makes any good ones.

      2 replies 34 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

      BAD IRAN DEAL ARGUMENT 1: Focus on past, not future. Virtually everyone calling for US to withdraw devotes most or all of their argument to why Obama shouldn't have signed the nuclear deal in 2015. But, regardless of the merits, we can't go back in time and reverse it. 2/x

      1 reply 6 retweets 15 likes
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    3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

      The *only* reason the US should renege now is to improve the situation. Advocates of breaking the deal rarely even try to make that argument. For example, if you don't like that the deal lets Iran out of some commitments in 10 years, why do you want to let them out sooner? 3/x

      1 reply 6 retweets 17 likes
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    4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

      BAD IRAN DEAL ARGUMENT 2: Ignore non-American parties to the agreement. Listening to some nuclear deal critics, you'd think the agreement was just between the US and Iran. "Obama gave away X and didn't get enough!" But US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Iran all signed. 4/x

      1 reply 5 retweets 13 likes
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      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

      Global sanctions is the only reason Iran agreed to concessions. US imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran after 1979 revolution, but they didn't do much (besides signal America's disapproval). Only when the rest of the world joined in the 2000s did sanctions really hurt. 5/x

      7:22 AM - 8 May 2018
      • 5 Retweets
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      1 reply 5 retweets 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          Critics of the JCPOA (the nuclear deal's formal name) say Obama should've waited for sanctions to hurt more until Iran made bigger concessions. But the sanctions regime was already fraying. Russia was starting to cut deals. China was creating workarounds for Iranian oil. 6/x

          1 reply 5 retweets 13 likes
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        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          There's no way Russia and China will impose new sanctions on Iran. They believe Iran's honoring the deal--so does US, Israeli, European intelligence, and IAEA--and they're not going to hurt their own economies because the US asked them to. The Europeans probably won't either. 7/x

          1 reply 8 retweets 11 likes
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        4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          BAD IRAN DEAL ARGUMENT 3: Iran will capitulate I predict reneging on the Iran deal will lead to a nuclear Iran or war (see link). Many advocates of withdrawal don't talk about what comes next, but those who do say I'm wrong--it'll lead to a better deal.https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …

          2 replies 6 retweets 8 likes
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        5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          After showing Iran (and everyone else) that America's word is no good, and with decently less leverage than in 2015, Trump will get Iran to sign a new deal with bigger concessions. If that sounds like a too-good-to-be-true Trump University-style scam, that's because it is. 9/x

          1 reply 8 retweets 18 likes
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        6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          No one capitulates. States make concessions in exchange for concessions, but don't agree to forfeit all their national interests, even under threat. Especially not a country like Iran, which is weaker than the US, but can definitely impose costs in the event of war. 10/x

          1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
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        7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          The Trump admin should know countries don't capitulate from the Qatar Crisis, which has backfired. Instead of making concessions, Qatar went with defiance. One reason they can: an economic lifeline (to Iran), much as Iran will have economic lifelines to Russia and China. 11/x

          1 reply 6 retweets 8 likes
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        8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          Those who want the US to renege on the Iran deal are either 1) Hoping for war 2) Lying when they say they don't want war 3) Deluding themselves about the likelihood Iran gives up its main national interests in response to US pressure 12/x

          1 reply 10 retweets 16 likes
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        9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 May 8

          Iran doesn't have nukes now, and is further from a bomb than in 2014. Letting Iran out of its commitments--with the world blaming the US, not Iran--does not improve that status quo. That's why advocates of withdrawal make these 3 bad arguments. They don't have good ones. (END)

          0 replies 10 retweets 14 likes
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        10. End of conversation

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