(THREAD) Iran Deal opponents keep making these same 3 bad arguments. Look for them in Trump's speech announcing American withdrawal, and see if he makes any good ones.
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Global sanctions is the only reason Iran agreed to concessions. US imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran after 1979 revolution, but they didn't do much (besides signal America's disapproval). Only when the rest of the world joined in the 2000s did sanctions really hurt. 5/x
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Critics of the JCPOA (the nuclear deal's formal name) say Obama should've waited for sanctions to hurt more until Iran made bigger concessions. But the sanctions regime was already fraying. Russia was starting to cut deals. China was creating workarounds for Iranian oil. 6/x
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There's no way Russia and China will impose new sanctions on Iran. They believe Iran's honoring the deal--so does US, Israeli, European intelligence, and IAEA--and they're not going to hurt their own economies because the US asked them to. The Europeans probably won't either. 7/x
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BAD IRAN DEAL ARGUMENT 3: Iran will capitulate I predict reneging on the Iran deal will lead to a nuclear Iran or war (see link). Many advocates of withdrawal don't talk about what comes next, but those who do say I'm wrong--it'll lead to a better deal.https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …
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After showing Iran (and everyone else) that America's word is no good, and with decently less leverage than in 2015, Trump will get Iran to sign a new deal with bigger concessions. If that sounds like a too-good-to-be-true Trump University-style scam, that's because it is. 9/x
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No one capitulates. States make concessions in exchange for concessions, but don't agree to forfeit all their national interests, even under threat. Especially not a country like Iran, which is weaker than the US, but can definitely impose costs in the event of war. 10/x
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The Trump admin should know countries don't capitulate from the Qatar Crisis, which has backfired. Instead of making concessions, Qatar went with defiance. One reason they can: an economic lifeline (to Iran), much as Iran will have economic lifelines to Russia and China. 11/x
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Those who want the US to renege on the Iran deal are either 1) Hoping for war 2) Lying when they say they don't want war 3) Deluding themselves about the likelihood Iran gives up its main national interests in response to US pressure 12/x
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Iran doesn't have nukes now, and is further from a bomb than in 2014. Letting Iran out of its commitments--with the world blaming the US, not Iran--does not improve that status quo. That's why advocates of withdrawal make these 3 bad arguments. They don't have good ones. (END)
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