Bolton replacing McMaster is clearest sign yet US is going to bomb Iran. Reports Kushner is beholden to Saudi Crown Prince is another. When I laid out the prediction just 4 days ago neither had happened. Attack looks even more likely now. Still a bad idea.https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …
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John Bolton, on the Iran nuclear deal, July 3, 2017: "Let’s be clear: Even if somebody were to say to you that the regime is in full compliance with the nuclear deal, it doesn’t make any difference."
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Bolton's also one of the very few people who still argues the Iraq war was a success. Not the right decision at the time based on what we knew then. Not well-intentioned but poorly executed, leading to insufficiently anticipated problems. But an unmitigated success.
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I'm more hawkish than many. And I argue the US should work to counter Iran. But Bolton argues for unilateral, preemptive force and doesn't sufficiently consider potential downsides. As I lay out in the article, the smart strategy against Iran is containment.
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I've admired McMaster my whole career (as do most who study and/or engage in counterinsurgency). He's had a tough line to walk in the White House, and didn't always handle it perfectly. But he was a big upgrade over Michael Flynn. Replacing him with Bolton is an immense downgrade
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Even worse, I can't shake the feeling that a major reason Bolton's getting this immensely power position is the president's seen him on television.
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Replying to @NGrossman81
More pointedly, the president has seen Bolton praise him on television. Bolton - many things but not dumb - was fishing for this outcome.
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He’s definitely not dumb. Often wrong. But not dumb.
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