(THREAD) A lot of hand-wringing over Monmouth poll showing 74% of Americans believe the "Deep State" manipulates policy. As if this proves Donald Trump has Alex Jones-ified America, or at least that his attacks on the FBI are working. But I'm skeptical. Here's why:
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Here's the question that's attracted so much attention. Asked if there's "a group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy," 27% say definitely and 47% say probably. 2/xpic.twitter.com/387G7hn6eJ
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But right before, they asked respondents if they're familiar with the term "Deep State." 63% said no. Since Fox, InfoWars, Breitbart, etc. use "Deep State" incessantly, almost 2/3rds not knowing the term indicates most Americans aren't taken in by Trumpist conspiracy theories 3/xpic.twitter.com/wuPPD3wwtx
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The real problem, as with so many surveys, is experts and political junkies use a term like "Deep State" in a very specific way, while most respondents aren't familiar with it. Because those who believe that unelected official influence federal policy are right. 4/x
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Military, intelligence, Justice, various regulatory agencies, etc. hire on their own and promote from within. Only the top spots are politically appointed. In many ways, this a good thing. Most of them are hard-working, professional, patriotic, and non-partisan. 5/x
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I teach a college course on American foreign policy. One of my favorite lectures is "Org Chart Day." Here's the State Department. None elected. Vast majority not appointed by elected officials. Most poli sci majors aren't familiar with this. Why would average Americans be? 6/xpic.twitter.com/2U3C5kT95z
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"Deep State" has negative connotations. "Permanent bureaucracy" is less loaded. But unless you're already familiar with the topic, they're the same thing. In that context, the plurality answer of "probably exists" sounds like survey respondents acknowledging reality. 7/x
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Here's the other part of the poll prompting "EVERYONE'S A PRO-TRUMP CONSPIRACY THEORIST NOW!!!" hyperventilating. 53% worry US government is monitoring their activities. And 53% think it's widespread. 8/xpic.twitter.com/Q0OT9yGiCg
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Some trying to spin this as support for Nunes memo, conviction Carter Page is innocent, FBI conspiring against Trump, and so on. But, once again, they're right. Not about those conspiracy theories. But about US government monitoring. Snowden docs proved it. 9/x
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People cherry-picking those questions as proof Americans buy Trumpist conspiracy theories ignored the next question from the very same poll. Asked if government spying on American citizens is justified, a majority (53%) said sometimes yes. And 18% said usually yes. 10/xpic.twitter.com/gI84KOdZhk
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The takeaway is not we're all conspiracy theorists now. Or even that Trump changed public perception. Most Americans think there's an influential unelected bureaucracy, and that it sometimes spies on citizens. They're right. Reading much more into the results is projecting. (END)
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PS: Here's the link to the full survey, if you're curious. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_031918.pdf/ …
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