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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

    (THREAD) A lot of hand-wringing over Monmouth poll showing 74% of Americans believe the "Deep State" manipulates policy. As if this proves Donald Trump has Alex Jones-ified America, or at least that his attacks on the FBI are working. But I'm skeptical. Here's why:

    7:48 AM - 20 Mar 2018 from Urbana, IL
    • 34 Retweets
    • 40 Likes
    • david mclaughlin Joseph Sutton Vote November 6th 🌊 Katharine #IDoNotConsent American Baby🌊🌊🌊 Ky Johnson Jay Wildling Hehurtsmyhead Pete Kaliner
    7 replies 34 retweets 40 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        Here's the question that's attracted so much attention. Asked if there's "a group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy," 27% say definitely and 47% say probably. 2/xpic.twitter.com/387G7hn6eJ

        4 replies 4 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        But right before, they asked respondents if they're familiar with the term "Deep State." 63% said no. Since Fox, InfoWars, Breitbart, etc. use "Deep State" incessantly, almost 2/3rds not knowing the term indicates most Americans aren't taken in by Trumpist conspiracy theories 3/xpic.twitter.com/wuPPD3wwtx

        1 reply 10 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        The real problem, as with so many surveys, is experts and political junkies use a term like "Deep State" in a very specific way, while most respondents aren't familiar with it. Because those who believe that unelected official influence federal policy are right. 4/x

        2 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        Military, intelligence, Justice, various regulatory agencies, etc. hire on their own and promote from within. Only the top spots are politically appointed. In many ways, this a good thing. Most of them are hard-working, professional, patriotic, and non-partisan. 5/x

        1 reply 5 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        I teach a college course on American foreign policy. One of my favorite lectures is "Org Chart Day." Here's the State Department. None elected. Vast majority not appointed by elected officials. Most poli sci majors aren't familiar with this. Why would average Americans be? 6/xpic.twitter.com/2U3C5kT95z

        1 reply 4 retweets 18 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        "Deep State" has negative connotations. "Permanent bureaucracy" is less loaded. But unless you're already familiar with the topic, they're the same thing. In that context, the plurality answer of "probably exists" sounds like survey respondents acknowledging reality. 7/x

        1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        Here's the other part of the poll prompting "EVERYONE'S A PRO-TRUMP CONSPIRACY THEORIST NOW!!!" hyperventilating. 53% worry US government is monitoring their activities. And 53% think it's widespread. 8/xpic.twitter.com/Q0OT9yGiCg

        3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        Some trying to spin this as support for Nunes memo, conviction Carter Page is innocent, FBI conspiring against Trump, and so on. But, once again, they're right. Not about those conspiracy theories. But about US government monitoring. Snowden docs proved it. 9/x

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        People cherry-picking those questions as proof Americans buy Trumpist conspiracy theories ignored the next question from the very same poll. Asked if government spying on American citizens is justified, a majority (53%) said sometimes yes. And 18% said usually yes. 10/xpic.twitter.com/gI84KOdZhk

        1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        The takeaway is not we're all conspiracy theorists now. Or even that Trump changed public perception. Most Americans think there's an influential unelected bureaucracy, and that it sometimes spies on citizens. They're right. Reading much more into the results is projecting. (END)

        1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20

        PS: Here's the link to the full survey, if you're curious. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_031918.pdf/ …

        0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      13. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Annabelle Leigh‏ @annableigh Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Problem w/poll vs headline is Monmouth defined Deep State differently fr right-wing use. Hdline implies 74% accept RW def FALSE

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 20
        Replying to @annableigh

        And even when they did define it, it would be easy for different respondents to interpret the term differently. If you look at some of the responses to my thread, some people include donors and lobbyists in "Deep State," while others just look at federal bureaucracy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Annabelle Leigh‏ @annableigh Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Yes. I think that's exactly what happened. Also, while the sample weights & methodology are good the sample size is under 1000.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. KH‏ @labboypro Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        "THE MAN" (all caps) has been a potent governmental bogeyman for at least 50 years. We just got fancy with the new Bannon-esque term.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      1. RANX‏ @Subvertica Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        My takeaway... To the Left, the “deep state” is government surveillance (which has a legacy and is real)... To the Right, the “deep state” is anyone that works in government that isn’t loyal to Lumpy.

        0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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      1. Mic Fuckabee‏ @micfuckabee Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        so 74% of americans are... not completely stupid? of course intelligence agencies and other entrenched bureacracies manipulate policy, generally speaking. it's the idea that the "deep state" is a "globalist" cabal that's alex jones idiocy-flavored kool-aid

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Holy Cow!‏ @JMW70710 Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        So THAT'S who *they* are?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. #BRUCEHAWES‏ @BRUCEHAWES Mar 20
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        You are making up statistic Nicolas. If your numbers were true that would mean all of America's relatives in government would favor Trump's hatred which is NOT true. Most Americans have relatives that work in government. I call it, "DEEP-SPACE-STATE!" You need a new slogan. LOL

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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