Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

Tweets

Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict Mar 15

      Dems have outpaced their "typical" share of the vote (as estimated using @CookPolitical PVI) by an average of 9% in the past year's 7 special congressional elections. They'd only need to overperform by an average of 4% to win the House majority in November.pic.twitter.com/RJckdTDFMn

      31 replies 277 retweets 555 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict Mar 15

      Remember, though: this doesn't mean Dems are about to win 80+ seats. It's much easier for Dems to win impressive %s in open seat situations (as is the case with specials) than vs. well-funded GOP incumbents, as will be the case in most districts this fall.

      15 replies 40 retweets 180 likes
      Show this thread
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 15
      Replying to @Redistrict

      Are you sure about that 4% margin? Could repeat the 2016 error. Hillary led by 2-3% in national polls, but election decided state-by-state. Dem lead of 4% in national generic Congressional poll could predict massive victories in safe blue districts plus narrow losses in purple.

      2:04 PM - 15 Mar 2018 from Urbana, IL
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Low Energy Jeff Garceau‏ @J_Louis_Garceau Mar 15
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @Redistrict

          I'm pretty sure what Dave means is that, if a +4% across-the-board performance occurs, Dems get at least 24 seats. If they improved performance by 4% over expected per the PVI in each district, not just 4% victory nationally, which is what you are comparing to.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 15
          Replying to @J_Louis_Garceau @Redistrict

          "They'd only need to overperform by an average of 4% to win the House majority in November." Not necessarily. That average could come about by beating each districts' expectations by 4%. Or it could come from beating a quarter of them by 16% and 0% in the others.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Nick Johnson‏ @N_J____ Mar 15
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @Redistrict

          The analysis wasn't performed based on the generic ballot but on special election results. Based on where the elections have been located we have more information about Dems outperforming where they did poorly in 2016 than results of where they did well.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nick Johnson‏ @N_J____ Mar 15
          Replying to @N_J____ @NGrossman81 @Redistrict

          Obviously, it's not a coincidence most congressional elections were in red districts. The locations of special elections was mostly based on Trump's nominations and it would only make sense to pick seats viewed as safe.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2018 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info