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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      TO EVERYONE ARGUING TRUMP SHOULDN'T TALK TO NORTH KOREA: If getting Kim to the table isn't the point of sanctions, and war's a bad idea, what's the strategy? No one capitulates. Ever. But sometimes in talks they give something to get something. If there's no good deal, walk away.

      32 replies 24 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Evidently, I'm on a bit of an island here, with most saying Trump meeting with Kim is a bad idea. I think talking is a good idea. Here's why: 2/x

      5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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    3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Some conservative commentators I respect (@RadioFreeTom @NoahCRothman et al) argue Trump meeting Kim is a bad idea because it rewards North Korea for bad behavior, gives Kim the legitimacy he craves, and the US didn't get enough preconditions to justify meeting. 3/x

      5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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    4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      However... 1) North Korea agreed to suspend missile and nuclear testing while talks go on. Considering they conducted one hydrogen-boosted nuclear weapon test and 16 ballistic missile tests in 2017--all of which US condemned--a testing freeze is a concession in advance. 4/x

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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    5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      2) Yes, Kim wants the prestige of meeting directly with a US president but what does he actually gain? Some propaganda videos for domestic consumption? Sure, but his power's already absolute. International acceptance? Hardly. Not unless there's a breakthrough deal. 5/x

      4 replies 2 retweets 1 like
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    6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      The other big criticism, mostly from the left, is that Trump's bound to screw it up. Maybe Kim'll flatter him and he'll give away the store. Can't totally rule that out. But Trump's POTUS. We can't put foreign policy on hold for 3 years. Not with NK's capabilities advancing. 6/x

      4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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    7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Yes, previous agreements with North Korea haven't led to success. But holding negotiations doesn't mean one has to accept any deal. If nothing good is on the table, walk away. 7/x

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Refusing to talk declares in advance that no deal is possible. Then what's the strategy? War? Incredibly costly. Sanctions until North Korea capitulates? No chance. 8/x

      3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      NO ONE CAPITULATES At least not without losing a major war (Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan). Thinking that pressure would lead to capitulation is how Saudis etc screwed up Qatar crisis. It's why pre-Iraq War demands didn't work. It's the primary mistake of Iran deal opponents. 9/x

      6:22 PM - 8 Mar 2018 from Urbana, IL
      • 1 Like
      • Michael Esposito
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Pressure leads to negotiations, not capitulation. Forces countries to the table. But if we won't talk to North Korea even after they suspend testing in advance, what's the point of pressure? 10/x

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Another criticism: negotiating shows that North Korea's path brings legitimacy. Hardly. Who would look at North Korea's experience over the last few decades and think it looks appealing? Besides, NK has nukes. And now ICBMs. Pretending otherwise gets us nowhere. 11/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Circumstances have changed. North Korea has a demonstrated nuclear capability. And Trump has unsettled North Korea, South Korea, China, and others with his "madman theory" bluster. As I wrote in this article, it's time for out-of-the-box thinking. https://arcdigital.media/three-out-of-the-box-options-for-north-korea-a73975561b02 … 12/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          I know many disagree. But if you think the US should reject talks, you need to come up with a plan that will successfully deescalate the situation on the Korean peninsula without the United States negotiating with Kim Jong-un's regime. I say it's worth the gamble. (END)

          3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Nicholas Grossman Retweeted John Podhoretz

          You say this as if... 1) Meeting with POTUS is a huge deal. Not nothing, but they meet tons of people. 2) North Korea's path looks desirable to others. Endure decades of isolating sanctions and poverty, scratch together a nuke, and all you get is a meetinghttps://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/971902061141987330 …

          Nicholas Grossman added,

          John PodhoretzVerified account @jpodhoretz
          This is great. Want a meeting with Donald Trump? Test a nuke.
          5 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Here's another one. @MaxBoot says "Kim will be able to tell his people that the American president is kowtowing to him because he is scared of North Korea’s mighty nuclear arsenal." But he already tells his people stuff like that. And they believe it, because they're so isolated.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation

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