TO EVERYONE ARGUING TRUMP SHOULDN'T TALK TO NORTH KOREA: If getting Kim to the table isn't the point of sanctions, and war's a bad idea, what's the strategy? No one capitulates. Ever. But sometimes in talks they give something to get something. If there's no good deal, walk away.
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Yes, previous agreements with North Korea haven't led to success. But holding negotiations doesn't mean one has to accept any deal. If nothing good is on the table, walk away. 7/x
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Refusing to talk declares in advance that no deal is possible. Then what's the strategy? War? Incredibly costly. Sanctions until North Korea capitulates? No chance. 8/x
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NO ONE CAPITULATES At least not without losing a major war (Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan). Thinking that pressure would lead to capitulation is how Saudis etc screwed up Qatar crisis. It's why pre-Iraq War demands didn't work. It's the primary mistake of Iran deal opponents. 9/x
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Pressure leads to negotiations, not capitulation. Forces countries to the table. But if we won't talk to North Korea even after they suspend testing in advance, what's the point of pressure? 10/x
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Another criticism: negotiating shows that North Korea's path brings legitimacy. Hardly. Who would look at North Korea's experience over the last few decades and think it looks appealing? Besides, NK has nukes. And now ICBMs. Pretending otherwise gets us nowhere. 11/x
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Circumstances have changed. North Korea has a demonstrated nuclear capability. And Trump has unsettled North Korea, South Korea, China, and others with his "madman theory" bluster. As I wrote in this article, it's time for out-of-the-box thinking. https://arcdigital.media/three-out-of-the-box-options-for-north-korea-a73975561b02 … 12/x
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I know many disagree. But if you think the US should reject talks, you need to come up with a plan that will successfully deescalate the situation on the Korean peninsula without the United States negotiating with Kim Jong-un's regime. I say it's worth the gamble. (END)
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You say this as if... 1) Meeting with POTUS is a huge deal. Not nothing, but they meet tons of people. 2) North Korea's path looks desirable to others. Endure decades of isolating sanctions and poverty, scratch together a nuke, and all you get is a meetinghttps://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/971902061141987330 …
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Here's another one.
@MaxBoot says "Kim will be able to tell his people that the American president is kowtowing to him because he is scared of North Korea’s mighty nuclear arsenal." But he already tells his people stuff like that. And they believe it, because they're so isolated.Show this thread
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All valid points, but your very last two sentences are what I mostly agree with. My hesitation on this is indeed in the form of rewarding bad behavior after people have said for years “we can’t let rogue states see nukes as way to legitimacy.”
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But we do otherwise seem to be at an impasse. The sanctions seem to be working...but working to the point of nK collapsing is quite possibly more dangerous than a standing regime with weapons.
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They don't seem to be on the verge of collapse. Despite sanctions, the regime has remained in power and advanced its weapons capabilities. Believing talks will lead to disarmament is naive. But they could lead to some stabilization. And if they fail, it's just status quo.
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Currently on the verge? No. Continued years of the current pressure though could finally become a different story. My concern is that failed talks in the current environment would not lead to status quo of the past, as much as I truly want to believe that.
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Might be nice if that
@POTUS and his enabler Rex Tillerson hadn't spent the past year disassembling the State Department. Also if said POTUS didn't rely on Fox & Friends for his daily briefing. "If you ain't scared, you ain't right." -- Taj MahalThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I think Vlad has his hand in this somehow. He and Kim support each other. Basically, it's too easy. I smell a rat.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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