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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      TO EVERYONE ARGUING TRUMP SHOULDN'T TALK TO NORTH KOREA: If getting Kim to the table isn't the point of sanctions, and war's a bad idea, what's the strategy? No one capitulates. Ever. But sometimes in talks they give something to get something. If there's no good deal, walk away.

      32 replies 24 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Evidently, I'm on a bit of an island here, with most saying Trump meeting with Kim is a bad idea. I think talking is a good idea. Here's why: 2/x

      5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      Some conservative commentators I respect (@RadioFreeTom @NoahCRothman et al) argue Trump meeting Kim is a bad idea because it rewards North Korea for bad behavior, gives Kim the legitimacy he craves, and the US didn't get enough preconditions to justify meeting. 3/x

      5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      However... 1) North Korea agreed to suspend missile and nuclear testing while talks go on. Considering they conducted one hydrogen-boosted nuclear weapon test and 16 ballistic missile tests in 2017--all of which US condemned--a testing freeze is a concession in advance. 4/x

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

      2) Yes, Kim wants the prestige of meeting directly with a US president but what does he actually gain? Some propaganda videos for domestic consumption? Sure, but his power's already absolute. International acceptance? Hardly. Not unless there's a breakthrough deal. 5/x

      6:12 PM - 8 Mar 2018 from Urbana, IL
      • 2 Retweets
      • 1 Like
      • Michael Esposito Tyler Scrimager PeebeauxWillVoteBlue
      4 replies 2 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          The other big criticism, mostly from the left, is that Trump's bound to screw it up. Maybe Kim'll flatter him and he'll give away the store. Can't totally rule that out. But Trump's POTUS. We can't put foreign policy on hold for 3 years. Not with NK's capabilities advancing. 6/x

          4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Yes, previous agreements with North Korea haven't led to success. But holding negotiations doesn't mean one has to accept any deal. If nothing good is on the table, walk away. 7/x

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Refusing to talk declares in advance that no deal is possible. Then what's the strategy? War? Incredibly costly. Sanctions until North Korea capitulates? No chance. 8/x

          3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          NO ONE CAPITULATES At least not without losing a major war (Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan). Thinking that pressure would lead to capitulation is how Saudis etc screwed up Qatar crisis. It's why pre-Iraq War demands didn't work. It's the primary mistake of Iran deal opponents. 9/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Pressure leads to negotiations, not capitulation. Forces countries to the table. But if we won't talk to North Korea even after they suspend testing in advance, what's the point of pressure? 10/x

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
          Show this thread
        7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Another criticism: negotiating shows that North Korea's path brings legitimacy. Hardly. Who would look at North Korea's experience over the last few decades and think it looks appealing? Besides, NK has nukes. And now ICBMs. Pretending otherwise gets us nowhere. 11/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Circumstances have changed. North Korea has a demonstrated nuclear capability. And Trump has unsettled North Korea, South Korea, China, and others with his "madman theory" bluster. As I wrote in this article, it's time for out-of-the-box thinking. https://arcdigital.media/three-out-of-the-box-options-for-north-korea-a73975561b02 … 12/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          I know many disagree. But if you think the US should reject talks, you need to come up with a plan that will successfully deescalate the situation on the Korean peninsula without the United States negotiating with Kim Jong-un's regime. I say it's worth the gamble. (END)

          3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        10. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Nicholas Grossman Retweeted John Podhoretz

          You say this as if... 1) Meeting with POTUS is a huge deal. Not nothing, but they meet tons of people. 2) North Korea's path looks desirable to others. Endure decades of isolating sanctions and poverty, scratch together a nuke, and all you get is a meetinghttps://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/971902061141987330 …

          Nicholas Grossman added,

          John PodhoretzVerified account @jpodhoretz
          This is great. Want a meeting with Donald Trump? Test a nuke.
          5 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

          Here's another one. @MaxBoot says "Kim will be able to tell his people that the American president is kowtowing to him because he is scared of North Korea’s mighty nuclear arsenal." But he already tells his people stuff like that. And they believe it, because they're so isolated.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Safiyah Noor‏ @SafiyahNoor1 Mar 9
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          I disagree with this. First and foremost, serious dispute as to whose interests Trump will be negotiating for. Under the current circumstances no telling how the meeting will be perceived by all the little monster autocrats who will be riveted by it. This is a bad idea.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 9
          Replying to @SafiyahNoor1

          This is a variation on the no-confidence-in-Trump criticism. As you know, I'm quite critical of him as well. But I think the effect is much more dependent on the results of the meeting than having the meeting itself (though I share some skepticism that the meeting will succeed).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Safiyah Noor‏ @SafiyahNoor1 Mar 9
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          Why would we have confidence in Trump? Trump has gone out of his way to exhibit authoritarian impulses, has consistently failed to protect the US from Russian cyberwarfare tactics and has shown a disinterest in both American interests and those of our allies. Topper-over 2k lies

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 9
          Replying to @SafiyahNoor1

          I didn't say we should.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Safiyah Noor‏ @SafiyahNoor1 Mar 9
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          So is the no confidence in Trump criticism valid or not?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Chris‏ @chrimyer Mar 8
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          The people eating dirt and watching their sisters' heads getting popped off with garrotes might be disheartened or something

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8
          Replying to @chrimyer

          Harsh, but yeah that's basically my point. I don't see how a top-level meeting makes a difference in that regard.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Chris‏ @chrimyer Mar 8
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          I don't either and there's already been at least some proclaimed concessions from Kim. I'm keeping an open mind and don't see how a meeting could make things worse than they already are and have been

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Pass it along - Flash Mob - 11/6 - #VoteBlue‏ @buffaloquinn Mar 8
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          Unless Trump miraculously asks for exactly what Kim is willing to give, than it will fail. And Trump's reputation as being pigheaded will leave the failure on his doorstep. And Kim will come out of the meeting with more international acceptance for agreeing to meet with the US.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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